NFL Week 11 Bettors Guide.

Last Week: 7-6 against the spread (there was no line on the Indy-Pitt game til late); 9-5 straight up.

Tonight:
New York Jets (+3.5) @ New England Patriots- I'm gonna stop doubtin my squad. Anytime you can win 47-3 in the NFL, I don't care who the opponent is that is complete domination at its finest. This rivalry has been fairly one-sided lately with the Patriots winning five of the last six games straight up. However, the Jets are 2-1 ATS in the Razor, including a straight-up victory here in 2006. These games here have been real close and I expect the same here. If Favre plays mistake-free football again and the secondary can contain Wes Welker (he's more viable at this point than Randy Moss); the Jets will leave here with a victory. Jets 21 Patriots 17

1pm Games:
Chicago Bears (NL) @ Green Bay Packers- How could I forget that these two are playing hah. Anyhow, there's no line as of yet due to the uncertain status of Kyle Orton. I do expect however the Bears to continue their mastery of the Packers this year in Green Bay regardless of QB. They've won four consecutive times up in Lambeau and 6 of 8 overall. The Bears realize the urgency of the situation and in order to stay ahead in the muddled NFC North, their defense has to step it up and I believe they will against a now-pedestrian Packers' offense. Chicago 20 Green Bay 13

Denver Broncos @ Atlanta Falcons (-6.5)- I am sold on this Falcons' squad. They can bring the heat on the defensive side of the ball and are gaining confidence with every down on offense. Matt Ryan is the runaway Offensive Rookie of the Year and some people may argue that he should get some MVP consideration. Mike Smith has done a simply tremendous job with this team, whom I'm sure are winning back their fans REAL QUICK. They're gonna have a field day with Denver's shit defense and Cutler is gonna have to do the same thing Drew Brees did last week. The Cutler-Marshall express are gonna get theirs but if the Falcons force turnovers...game over. Falcons 34 Broncos 24

Oakland Raiders (+10.5) @ Miami Dolphins- The oddsmakers IMO are giving Miami a little too much credit. Granted, it's another west coast team traveling to the East for a matchup...but Oakland last time they did this almost pulled off a shocker in Buffalo before falling short 24-23. Since then however, Oakland has had ZERO offense. Miami will have no problem dealing with that dreadful unit...but Oakland's defense (namely secondary) will keep them in this game and help them cover. Oakland last time they came to Miami actually came away with a W, they will come out with a L this time. But they'll finally score a TD. Dolphins 17 Raiders 7

Baltimore Ravens (+6.5) @ New York Giants- I'm surprised for a game featuring two of the top 6 teams in football right now (I'd rank them NYG, TEN, BAL, PIT, CAR, ATL) that the Ravens are this lightly regarded. The huge matchup here is the Ravens' O-Line vs. the Giants' ferocious D-Line. If Joe Flacco can stay upright they'll have a chance to win this game. The Giants on offense will punish you with Brandon Jacobs and then come slashin at you with Derrick Ward (a poor man's Brian Westbrook). It'll be a higher scoring game than people think. The defending champs win. Baltimore covers. Giants 24 Ravens 20

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts (-8.5)- The Texans play the Colts tough...at Reliant Stadium. On the road, they typically get manhandled and this Sunday will be no exception. If Joe Flacco and the Ravens can put up a 41 spot on this defense, I'm sure Peyton Manning could do that in his sleep. Houston will score some points (you figure you can when you have Steve Slaton and Andre Johnson as your weapons) but Indy is gonna have a field day. Colts 38 Texans 17

Philadelphia Eagles (-9) @ Cincinnati Bengals- The Bengals are actually 2-0 ATS vs. NFC opponents this year. The Bengals will leave 2-1 ATS vs. NFC opponents this year. Yeah, they had the bye week to prepare but Philly is none too pleased about their loss last week to the G-Men. Ryan Fitzpatrick is not ready for what's gonna happen to him here; he's gonna get blitzed into submission. Eagles 28 Bengals 9

New Orleans Saints @ Kansas City Chiefs (+5.5)- If the NFL awarded moral victories, the Chiefs would be leading the AFC West at this point hah. What a gutsy performance versus the Chargers; unfortunately that botched extra point snap did them in. The Saints can air it out with anyone, the problem is that they have NO running game...and that's one way to get to the Chiefs. But their beleagured run defense only allowed 92 yards rushing last week, including 78 to LaDanian Tomlinson. Tyler Thigpen has been playing out of his mind, and with the Saints having difficulty forcing turnovers...you know what? I'm pickin this upset (I know a lot of ppl are pounding the Saints' line thinking it'll be easy- boy are they in for a shock). Chiefs 31 Saints 24

Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers (-14)- I'm not gonna waste much time here. The Lions let me down big-time last week in what was probably their 2nd best chance to avoid going winless. Jake Delhomme had the worst game of his career at Oakland. At least Oakland has a decent secondary. The Lions have nothing. Oh, just run the ball Carolina and you'll be fine. Panthers 31 Lions 7 (garbage TD in the waning moments)

Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Bucs (-3.5)- Minnesota's defense was great last week. But two non-offensive TDs by Green Bay made the score close. This game is probably gonna be the hardest for me to choose because neither one of these teams are spectacular, but are efficent enough to win games. Tampa Bay has a little bit more to work with however than just the Adrian Petersons. Bucs 20 Vikings 14

4/815pm Games:
Arizona Cardinals (-3) @ Seattle Seahawks- The Cardinals are a perfect 2-0 ATS on the road vs. their NFC West opposition. They would love nothing more than to lay the hammer down on this hapless squad; which although they played hard @ Miami, fell short. Miami does not possess the firepower Arizona does...and this is not 2005. Even their home-field advantage has taken a hit, going 1-3 at home this year. I think this is a steal, even with the Cards having a day less to rest. After this game, the Cards will be 7-3 and up on the division 4 games with 5 to play (since unfortunately the Rams and 49ers play each other). Cardinals 35 Seahawks 13

St. Louis Rams (+6) @ San Francisco 49ers- The Niners almost shocked the world (who woulda thought beating Arizona would constitute that hah) last Monday night but were unable to hold on. Besides, what the fuck was that play call at the end? Meanwhile, the Rams simply got napalmed out of New Jersey and find themselves here. This one is gonna be an ugly one and I feel pity for those that have to partake in watching this. In the past 2 years, both teams have combined to score less than 40 between the two- and this game will be no exception. Niners win and move into second place LOL...Rams cover (don't make me foolish again though). Niners 17 Rams 13

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+3)- One thing about this rivalry, NEVER be the favorite...you almost always straight-up lose hah. Plus, this is right up Jacksonville's alley...it's a highly regarded opponent that they can actually get up for (they've beaten the Broncos and Colts on the road this year). Tennessee is undefeated and it's a mystery of life...but the Bears took away their most dangerous dimension last week- their running game. Somehow, Kerry Collins beat them with his arm. If this happens 2 weeks in a row, I will shit myself but I won't have to worry. Plus, it'll go down to the final play. Josh Scobee has ice water in his veins, and will kick the Titans from the ranks of the unbeaten. Jaguars 16 Titans 13

San Diego Chargers (+5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers- The Steelers have struggled in important games this year, losing to the Eagles, Giants and Colts (the last two being at home and could be argued that they let those slip away). Ben Roethlisberger is scheduled to play with his bum right shoulder, and Willie Parker may play as well with a shoulder harness...but clearly won't be at 100%. Random fact of the day- This is the 4th of 7 consecutive games the Steelers either play at 4:15 or in primetime. The Chargers are good on offense...but you don't know what to expect from them on defense. They're better than that 4-5 mark and it's time for their second half run. Upset time. Chargers 24 Steelers 17

Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) @ Washington Redskins- The two biggest questions are: 1) How much of an impact can Tony Romo have with his pinkie if he does play on Sunday night? 2) Will Clinton Portis play? The 2nd one is much more important IMO. The Redskins will have a vastly more difficult time beating the Cowboys without their MVP (and my current vote for that award). The Cowboys have struggled ATS versus the Redskins...and this game is ridiculously important for the Cowboys if they want to make their second half push in the division and conference. It'll be a good game both teams will play hard but finally, Dallas wins. Cowboys 24 Redskins 21

Monday Night:
Cleveland Browns (+5) @ Buffalo Bills- The Browns have a worse closer mentality than the New York Mets bullpen. The Bills meanwhile, after starting off the year hot, have suddenly become lethargic particularly on offense. GIVE MARSHAWN LYNCH THE FUCKIN BALL. Cleveland shined in their previous Monday Night Football performance, givin the defending champs arguably the most unexpected beating in the NFL this year (35-14) meanwhile we all remember what happened the last time Buffalo hosted a MNF game dear God. Buffalo finally gets off the schnide (they have to if they wanna remain in that AFC race) but Cleveland gets their cover on. Buffalo 27 Cleveland 23

And so on.