College Football Top 25 Bettors Guide.

Sometimes I hate having to do this early in the week...but with #14 Ball State in the house tonight I have no other option. It can be to your advantage however especially if you pick a favorite. This is because sometimes a lot of ppl will put money on a favorite (i.e last week with USC starting out as a 17 point favorite over Cal) and the line will shift (USC by gametime was 22.5 point favorites). Not that it mattered because USC only won 17-3 but had USC won 21-3, I would have hit it (since I got USC at -17) but people who got it later would have failed. Anyways.

Last Week: 15-4 straight up; 11-8 against the spread.

Tonight:
#14 Ball State (-19.5) @ Miami Ohio (7pm- ESPN2): Perfect time for an upset bid right? Not a chance. Miami (OH) actually beat BSU last year 14-13 on the road but this Ball State team is much more explosive than that team last year. Ball State has been held to under 30 only once and in MAC play have scored 35+ in every game except one (31-0 win over Toledo). Miami Ohio has been decimated in their last two games by a combined 91-38 over Buffalo and Kent State, and Ball State is in another league compared to those two. Ball State 45 Miami (Ohio) 17

Friday:
#22 Cincinnati @ Louisville (+3.5) (8pm- ESPN): There is no team which I have less faith in in the nation than Louisville. Yet why the hell am I taking them here again? Last year, they went on the road to then #15 and undefeated Cincinnati and pulled off the 28-24 upset. Cincinnati is nothing special yes, but they get Ws and that's what matters. With Louisville, you never know what to expect. For example, for the 2nd year in a row they lose to Syracuse for God's sake...yet they beat South Florida. Lord knows. Anyways just to continue the trend...Louisville 23 Cincinnati 20

Saturday:
Mississippi State (+20) @ #1 Alabama (745pm- ESPN): I know initially I thought Alabama should have no problem with Mississippi State but a few things jumped out at me which made me cautious. Miss State has won the last two meetings (albeit Alabama was nowhere near the team they are now), and in their 3 games against ranked opponents this year (Auburn, Vanderbilt, LSU), they are 3-0 ATS and have lost by 1, won straight up, and lost by 10. Alabama is motivated enough not to get upset, especially at home...but MSU are gamers, and they will give Alabama everything they can handle, but Alabama's superior talent will overcome at the end. Alabama 23 Mississippi State 10

#3 Texas @ Kansas (+13.5) (1230pm- FSN): They haven't played each other since 2005, when the Vince Young-led Longhorns annihilated Kansas 66-14 in Austin; taking a 52-0 lead into halftime. However, the year before that- Kansas nearly pulled off the upset but Texas came from behind 27-23 in Lawrence. Although they are 0-3 against ranked opponents this year, they are 2-1 ATS in those same games. Also, interestingly enough this is only the second time ALL YEAR Texas plays a game away from their home state (Colorado was their first). Texas is lookin to stay in the NC hunt, while Kansas is trying to salvage their season and have an outside chance of still making it to the Big 12 title game. Their offense can put in work, problem is...their defense can't make stops when needed to (see game @ Nebraska last week). Texas 45 Kansas 35

#25 South Carolina (+21) @ #4 Florida (330pm- CBS): OK, so I lied when I said I'll never bet against Florida again this year. The nation's best overall team right now IMO have been point-spread covering beasts, covering all 8 times they have won this year. However, they're going up against South Carolina, who has given them minor issues lately including 2 years ago in Gainesville, where it took 3 blocked kicks to avert the upset. The Gamecocks are 1-1 ATS this year versus ranked opponents (Georgia and LSU) and have won their last 2 road games overall. In all 3 of their losses, they have lost by 7 points each and unbelievably they haven't allowed more than 24 points all year. Florida will do work and put an end to that; but it'll be a bit tougher than expected. Florida 34 South Carolina 17

#6 USC (-22.5) @ Stanford (7pm- Versus): I'm confused. Yes I understand Stanford is better than that team that upset the Trojans in LA last year as 41 point underdogs (ppl forget they CAME FROM BEHIND in that one). Yes they could feasibly be 7-3 right now, letting 2 games slip away late (UCLA and Oregon). But you can't be serious right now. USC has allowed ONE touchdown in the state of California all year (7 overall- 4 @ Oregon State, 1 @ Virginia, 1 @ Arizona) and if you think they have forgotten about what happened last year, you're on crack. True, their offense needs some improvement but with that defense, God bless and goodnight. USC 31 Stanford 0

#7 Utah (-28.5) @ San Diego State (8pm- The Mountain): San Diego State's hope- they "only" lost 23-7 to Utah in Salt Lake City. The problem? They are by far the worst team in the Mountain West Conference this year. Their 2 games against TCU and BYU, the other class of the MWC? Combined 82-19 losses...though they can be proud that they covered at BYU hah. Oh, and they lost to the 2nd worst team in the conference Wyoming 35-10. Good God. Well, Utah's not really a team that annihilates opponents like that but this is a perfect opportunity for them to tune up for their Holy War vs. BYU next week. The numbers are all there. Expect complete domination. Utah 42 San Diego State 3

Indiana (+34.5) @ #8 Penn State (Noon- Big Ten Network): On Monday I said to myself this should be a bloodbath. It will be, but with a caveat. Although the Hoosiers are 3-7 overall, have lost to Ball State and Central Michigan (albeit the class of the MAC this year) and just got destroyed by a struggling Wisconsin team...they're not THAT bad...wait yes they are but not 35 point underdog bad. Besides, Penn State as of late has been struggling on the offensive side of the ball. That will not be the case this Saturday, as Indiana's defense has allowed 38 touchdowns this year, while PSU has only allowed 14. Yeah, the numbers are there, but do you really think Penn State can cover this many points? I don't think so. They'll fall a little short here. Penn State 38 Indiana 7

#9 Boise State (-34.5) @ Idaho (5pm): Thank God I don't have to be anywhere near a TV for this one. Boise State has had their way with WAC opponents this year. Their smallest margin of victory is 17; haven't allowed more than 16 points in any contest...and the scariest thing about this particular matchup? Last week- BSU won 49-14 over Utah State(covering for me at -31.5; tying the spread otherwise for ppl who got it at -35) while committing 12 penalties and turning the ball over three times. Idaho has played better in recent weeks, covering their last 2 games and even winning one- over New Mexico State. But they lost by 44 last year to Boise and if you think they have a chance in hell, I'd give the Republicans in any presidental race a better chance of winning California. Boise State 55 Idaho 10

#10 Georgia @ Auburn (+8) (1230pm): The Deep South's Oldest Rivalry. Georgia has dominated the last two years, winning 37-15 and 45-20 respectively. So why is the spread so low? Georgia struggles to cover...they're 3-6 ATS; 1-5 in the last 6 games overall. Auburn has really struggled this year especially on the offensive side of the ball; contributing to their recent 4-game losing streak in D-1A play (Tennessee-Martin does not count hah). They've been pretty bad ATS as well though with ONE cover the entire year (in the first game of the season vs. Louisiana-Monroe). With that in mind however, Auburn has not played a conference game all year decided by more than 10 points. I think Auburn will get Georgia to play into their ugly style of play...and I'm callin it- I'm gonna go with the upset. Auburn 17Georgia 14

#11 Ohio State (-10) @ Illinois (Noon- ESPN): Yes, I know Illinois has a spread offense and used it to upset the Buckeyes in Columbus last year. But that Illini team was an upstart with a relatively unknown QB at the time in Juice Williams who kept the Buckeyes extremely off-balanced. But this game this year comes at a bad, bad time for the Illini. Ohio State has only allowed 13 TDs all year and yes, they've been able to slow down the spread offenses of Troy and Penn State, holding them to 23 points combined. Their offense is getting back on track and looks much better with Terrelle Pryor. Compound that with the Illini defense playing horribly in their 2 games against ranked opponents (52 to Mizzou, 38 to Penn State) and it could be a long afternoon in Champaign. Not to mention, the Buckeyes still have an outside shot at the Big Ten title. No upsets here. Ohio State 27 Illinois 13

#12 Missouri @ Iowa State (+26.5) (630pm- FSN): On paper this looks bad. Real bad. Mizzou has scored 53 TDs this year, while Iowa State has yielded 45. Iowa State's lost 8 straight games overall, while Mizzou has rebounded in winning their last three games. But there is hope in ATS land. Mizzou is a mere 1-4 ATS in their last five games. The one thing though is that you don't know which Iowa State team is going to show up. They almost pulled off the upset in their first ranked game of the season (Kansas, losing 35-33) but then was Oklahoma State's sacrifical lamb in the second one, losing 59-17. Mizzou's offense is scarier than both of those, IMO...but Iowa State does have a chance to cover. Remember, Mizzou's defense is not all that great and last year in a similar situation (Mizzou ranked 13th and Iowa State 1-7), Mizzou only won 42-28 at home. Missouri 52 Iowa State 28

#13 Oklahoma State (-17.5) @ Colorado (8pm- ABC regional/likely the western 2/3rds of the country): Oklahoma State just got ripped apart by Texas Tech last week and their whole team is smarting over that. They regrouped just fine after losing to Texas by destroying Iowa State 59-17. Meanwhile, Colorado is looking to become bowl-eligible and will be facing their 5th ranked opponent this year. They beat West Virginia in OT, but have gotten destroyed by Texas, Missouri and Kansas by a combined 126-28. Last time these two met, Colorado shut out Oklahoma State 34-0. But that was in 2005. This is NOT 2005. There will be some fury unleashed here and by then ABC will have mercifully have switched the regional coverage for you guys to the Boston College-Florida State game. Oklahoma State 41 Colorado 13

#16 North Carolina @ Maryland (+2.5) (330pm- ABC regional/East Coast): Oh geez, ACC time. Here's some food for thought. Maryland is 3-0 straight up/ATS versus ranked opponents this year. North Carolina meanwhile is 2-1 straight up but 1-2 ATS when ranked. The ACC is too wacky for me to make any other kind of statement however except yes, it'll be another close game and yes, you will see an "upset". Maryland 20 North Carolina 17

#17 BYU (-4) @ Air Force (330pm- The Mountain): This is gonna be a good one. Air Force believe it or not is 8-2 and their two losses this year have been by 7 and 6 points respectively to Utah and Navy- 2 very solid football teams. Their offense poses problems for any team's defense to deal with. BYU handled them fairly easily last year in a 31-6 victory...but BYU has really struggled ATS these days, failing to cover 6 straight times. On the flip side of the coin however, Air Force just can't beat ranked opponents. BYU finally will get a cover, but that's because the spread is finally low enough. BYU 27 Air Force 20

Boston College @ #19 Florida State (-7) (8pm- ABC regional/East Coast): ESPN Gameday will be here. It's another schizo ACC tilt. Except this time I may finally have the answer here. FSU is the more talented team on both sides of the ball...and feasibly could be undefeated were it not for that horror show vs. Wake earlier on and that last second turnover at Georgia Tech. Last year in Chestnut Hill, they beat a very overrated BC team that was ranked #2 simply because everyone else kept losing. This year, they shall win again. Florida State 24 Boston College 13

Troy (+19.5) @ #20 LSU (8pm): This is a makeup game from Hurricane Gustav. LSU had a heartbreaking OT loss to Alabama last week, meanwhile Troy took care of Western Kentucky. These 2 teams met last time 4 years ago (coincidentally LSU were defending champs that year as well) and after being eliminated from the title hunt- LSU struggled to put the Trojans away 24-20. There's nothing striking about either team to be honest, they both suck ATS but I think for LSU this is too high for them. LSU 31 Troy 17

#23 Tulsa (-5) @ Houston (8pm): The Tulsa Show has had a week to think about what might have been, after being upset by Arkansas. With their hopes of crashing the BCS party done, they now can refocus on Conference USA and their last real remaining hurdle to the C-USA title game. Houston's offense is good. Tulsa's offense however is psychotic...and if their defense can get a couple of stops on Houston, though it will not be another 56-7 whitewash as it was last year...there's no chance Houston's covering. Tulsa 56 Houston 28

#24 Wake Forest (-4) @ North Carolina State (330pm): Psst. Guess who leads the ACC Atlantic (for now)? Yes, that's Wake Forest. NC State's in last. What does that mean in the ACC though? Absolutely jackshit, hence the low spread. NC State are beasts against the spread, going 6-2 besides having an overall record of 2-6 in those games. Wake sucks ATS though I forget the exact record. The line suggests Wake is gonna win by a field goal. I think it'll be by 2 FGs hah. Wake Forest 20 North Carolina State 14.