College Football Top 25 Bettors Guide.

Last Week: 14-5 straight up; 8-11 against the spread

Overall these past 2 weeks: 29-9 straight up; 19-19 against the spread.

Wednesday:
#17 Ball State @ Central Michigan (+7) (7pm- ESPN2): This is essentially the MAC West championship game to decide who goes to the MAC Championship game (and most likely win it too because the MAC East is fairly weak- think Big 12 South vs. Big 12 North). Last year, Central dominated BSU 58-38 in Munice- on their way to a 2nd consecutive MAC title. Both teams are coming off of less than convincing road victories. Ball State looked sluggish at Miami (Ohio), while Central nearly blew a 30-6 lead late at Northern Illinois. Central Michigan is the underdog by this much due to their 1-8 all-time record vs. top 25 teams, and this only being their 2nd ever home game against a ranked opponent. However, I have the feeling since Central's been in this situation before, it will trumpet that statistic and they'll pull off the upset. Central Michigan 34 Ball State 28

Thursday:
#23 Miami (FL) (+3.5) @ Georgia Tech (730pm- ESPN): In this wacky wacky ACC, now it's the U who controls their ACC Coastal destiny. A win here puts them in even better shape to get to the ACC title game and possibly a berth in the BCS. Both teams are hella young, however the U appears to be rising; while the Yellow Jackets have come down to earth some. The U is 13-1 all-time on Thursday nights; meanwhile Georgia Tech is 9-4 all-time in this series, including 3 straight victories. For once, the ACC will be normal here and the U will pull off the "upset". Miami (FL) 21 Georgia Tech 17

Saturday:
#2 Texas Tech @ #5 Oklahoma (-7) (8pm- ABC): Both teams were off last week and it sets up this epic showdown, which you can view to an extent as being a NC semifinal game. Texas Tech has proved the doubters wrong all year and finally has a semblance of a defense to go along with their psychotic offense. If there's one team however that can match their offense step-by-step...it's Oklahoma's. The key here is the first quarter. Oklahoma has scored 21+ points in that quarter alone in 6 of their 10 games and another fast start even against a team like Tech could prove demoralizing. OU is 60-2 in the Bob Stoops era at home and Texas Tech has never beat them in Norman. Plus, when was the last time Tech won a key Big 12 road game? It'll be a shootout but I think OU will keep Tech at bay just enough. Oklahoma 56 Texas Tech 45

Citadel @ #4 Florida (NL) (130pm): Just a simple tune-up for Florida on Senior Day before their rivalry game at Florida State next week. Everyone will get a chance to play, yada yada yada. Florida 63 Citadel 7

#14 BYU @ #7 Utah (-6.5) (6pm- The Mountain): The Holy War, and good God it's gonna be a good one. BYU's coming off of an impressive road victory over Air Force; meanwhile Utah simply annihilated San Diego State. A BCS at-large berth is at stake in this one. Four years ago, Utah was in this exact same position (except BYU wasn't as good as they are now) and they thrived. With the homefield advantage, Utah will come out ready to go. Plus, BYU is susceptible to coming out flat on the road (see 28-27 win @ Washington, 32-7 loss to TCU as some examples). Frankly, I don't think BYU is that good, and Utah will repeat 2003-2004. Utah 24 BYU 10

#15 Michigan State (+14.5) @ #8 Penn State (330pm- ABC regional-east coast/ESPN elsewhere): The defacto Big Ten title game (although there's more on the line for Penn State than there is for Michigan State IMO). Penn State has looked flat in their last few games after starting off the season like a house of fire. Meanwhile, Michigan State has been steady, and surprisingly hasn't had their annual 2nd half swoon. It'll be a classic Big Ten battle: a low-scoring affair in which MSU will be content to grind it out, while Penn State will try to kick their Spread HD into gear. I can't envision whoever wins this winning by more than 7, even if MSU hasn't done all too well lately in games like this (see 45-10 smackdown by Ohio State at home for proof). Penn State will know the urgency of the situation...but Michigan State shocks a good portion of the country here and will send Ohio State to the Rose Bowl (and maybe insert themselves into a BCS bowl themselves). Michigan State 24 Penn State 21.

#9 Boise State (-6) @ Nevada (405pm): Another deja vu game here. 2 years ago, it was Boise State with a similar ranking to what they have now heading into Reno and bitchsmackin Nevada on their way to the Fiesta Bowl. It would be a similar situation here except Utah is ahead of BSU in the standings and it's likely that Boise State will be left out of the BCS picture. Nevertheless, Boise would love to wrap up the WAC title yet again and with the way they've been playing...even though Nevada is a very solid team (giving Texas Tech a fight before losing 35-19), good luck keeping it close with Boise- who has yet to win by less than 17 in conference play. Boise State 34 Nevada 17

Michigan (+20.5) @ #10 Ohio State (Noon- ABC): Just two years ago, this was a #1 vs. #2 battle and it was a national headliner- essentially a NC semifinal game and it lived up to the hype. Given the spread, you know times have changed. Michigan is 3-8 good God, while Ohio State, while not in the NC hunt this year as ppl thought they would, nevertheless has quite a bit at stake here (possible Rose Bowl hunt). In this series in the past, the team with the most to play for has been the loser...but I don't think you'll have to worry about that. Ohio State is hitting their stride at the right time and should be in firm control of this one. However- Michigan's defense will keep it a bit closer than ppl think...but their offense is a joke and OSU will have fun teeing off on them. Ohio State 27 Michigan 9

Air Force (+18.5) @ #16 TCU (330pm): I can understand why the spread is this high...TCU dominated Utah, but at the end of the day, two missed short field goals and a game-winning drive in the final minutes cost TCU a possible at-large berth and for two weeks, TCU has been stewing mad over this- ready to take it on a hapless opponent. Thing is though, Air Force is a damn good 8-3 squad who actually beat TCU last year; coming from 14 down to win in OT...a week after TCU had got kicked out the top 25. It's no secret Air Force can't beat ranked opponents for the life of them and they will not on Saturday, not against this ferocious defense. But they'll be able to cover. TCU 20 Air Force 10

Mississippi (+4.5) @ #18 LSU (330pm- CBS): Honestly, I don't know what to make of this game. Ole Miss is arguably the best 6-4 team in the nation, taking out Florida in the Swamp and giving Alabama the scare of their life down in Tuscaloosa before losing 24-20. They looked much better in their 59-0 bloodbath of Louisiana-Monroe than LSU did by making a miraculous comeback from 31-3 to beat Troy 40-31. LSU's defense is nowhere near as good as the champs were last year and Ole Miss is a markedly improved team. Even in the 41-24 victory in Oxford last year, it was closer than the score indicated. And LSU's homefield advantage seems to be irrelevant now. I'm gonna go with the upset here. Mississippi 31 LSU 27

#20 Pittsburgh @ #19 Cincinnati (-5.5) (715pm- ESPN2): Guess which conference is tougher to guess than the ACC? Yes, the Big East. Another defacto title game; particularly if Cinci wins this, the Big East and the Orange Bowl is theirs for the taking (they would own the tiebreakers over Pitt and West Virginia by virtue of beating both teams). Honestly, I don't know how they do it, but their bend-but-don't break style on defense doesn't get them in trouble. Meanwhile, Pitt hasn't won any game convincingly this year with the exception of two weeks ago against Louisville, a 41-7 ambush. Both teams have the toughness, but I think Cincinnati is more equipped and will gain revenge from last year's 24-17 defeat by winning by the exact same score. Cincinnati 24 Pittsburgh 17 (PS- the Steelers will beat the Bengals on Thursday hah- in case you were wondering)

#21 Oregon State @ Arizona (-3) (7pm- FSN or Versus...I'm not sure): Why is Arizona favored? Yes, it's November and the Wildcats are notorious for pulling off upsets of their ranked Pac-10 bretheren (three top-ten teams have gone down in four years). While Oregon State is not a top-10 team, they do by virtue of beating USC lead the Pac-10 and are gunning for an improbable Rose Bowl berth. OSU has a rep of their own however for being great 2nd half finishers. Something will have to give here. I think it'll be Oregon State that gives up their Pac-10 lead and restores order in the USC+9 realms. Arizona 34 Oregon State 28

North Carolina State (+10.5) @ #22 North Carolina (Noon): The wild wild ACC once again in the house. Last week, the favorites in conference games were 2-3 straight up and 1-4 ATS (only Clemson covered when they beat Duke)...with three of those games being decided by 4 or less points. Last year, NC State pulled out a 31-27 win over UNC, and with UNC having issues figuring out which QB they're going to use...a vastly improved (over the course of a couple weeks) NC State should have no issues covering. I don't think they'll win, but expect a close one just like rivalries always do. North Carolina 24 North Carolina State 20

Florida State (+1) @ #25 Maryland (745pm- ESPN): Good God not this again. Maryland is 4-0 as an unranked team beating a ranked team...but each time they've returned to the rankings, they have lost (0-2). Now they have control of the ACC Atlantic after Florida State couldn't solve the Boston College rubix cube last week. Maryland doesn't handle prosperity well. Then again, almost everyone in the ACC doesn't. I'm getting tired anyway. Florida State 20 Maryland 17 in OT fuck this.

And so on.