Thursday, September 24, 2009

NFL Week 3 Bettors Guide.

Last Week: 11-5 straight up and against the spread.

Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets (-3): This is gonna be a hella tough game for my boys because we're coming off such an emotional high in last week's game...not to mention not only do the Titans not want to fall 0-3; but they want revenge from the beatdown they received in Nashville last year to end their undefeated stretch. A lot of the experts don't believe the Jets will win this game (of course) but Rex Ryan will make sure to bring us back to reality and focus on the task at hand. Low scoring for sure. New York 17 Tennessee 10

Green Bay Packers (-6.5) @ St. Louis Rams: The Rams have no pulse...the only reason why they were in the game last week is because the Redskins have a putrid offense. Packers= much better offense. Get the hell outta here 6.5. It could be 11.5 I'd still take the Pack. Green Bay 28 St. Louis 10

Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions (+6.5): How do the Redskins respond? Similar schedule to last year where they got to play the Rams AND Lions yet they find a way to struggle to both. This game has been blacked out in Detroit because there were 10,000 unsold seats...but hey this is Detroit's best chance to win. Neither team know how to play 60 minutes of football but guess what, Detroit wins Sunday! Detroit 20 Washington 14

Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5): The Eagles are in a quandry, with Kevin Kolb slated to start for the second consecutive week. However this does mark the return of Michael Vick. Don't be fooled by KC's defense, they only looked good last week because Jamarcus Russell is the most erratic QB in the NFL. It probably doesn't matter who's under center...the Eagles will get the job done. Philadelphia 34 Kansas City 17

Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots (-4): I love the Falcons, they just are so fundamentally sound on both sides of the ball. The Patriots are being nit-picked like crazy...just deal with it the Jets simply were the better team last week Jesus. With that said, the Patriots should rebound in a game they need to have. They don't lose consecutive games. New England 24 Atlanta 17

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (-3.5): The Jaguars are simply not that good. The Texans got it together last week and that story continues here. Houston 27 Jacksonville 13

San Francisco 49ers (+7) @ Minnesota Vikings: Yes, count me in as one who's sold on this Niners squad. They're another team that doesn't wow you but their run game is on point & defense is solid. Minnesota is very similar. Adrian Peterson is a tad nicked up but he's fine he's gonna strap on those boots and be ready to rock. With that said though, I smell an upset. San Francisco 24 Minnesota 21

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (-13): Child please. Baltimore 34 Cleveland 10

New York Giants (-6.5) @ Tampa Bay Bucs: We know about the Giants' injuries and they just got dealt a huge blow with Kenny Phillips out for the year and Justin Tuck listed out. But hey, if you're gonna pick a time to lick your wounds it's their 3 week stretch of TB, KC and OAK. Doesn't get much easier than that. With that said, I think the Bucs will be game and give the spread a scare. But the outcome will never be in doubt. New York 28 Tampa Bay 17

New Orleans Saints (-6) @ Buffalo Bills: You can't stop this offense, you can only hope to contain them. The main reason why it's tough to cover much less beat the Saints at this point is because they score so often/quick that they force other offenses to speed up their tempo...and it ain't gonna happen. New Orleans 38 Buffalo 21

Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks (+2): Well Hasselbeck might not play and that has a lot to do with Seattle being the underdog in this one...but I think in the end, the Seahawks' defense will keep them in it and there's no shame with Seneca Wallace running the show- he's more than capable of filling in. Seattle 20 Chicago 17

Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) @ Cincinnati Bengals: If the Bengals treat this game like the Jets treated the Patriots last week then I will regret this pick. Nevertheless though, Ben Roethlisberger just doesn't lose in the state of Ohio and while the Bengals' defense will be game...can their offense make it 2 straight solid games. I'm not 100% sure. Pittsburgh 24 Cincinnati 17

Miami Dolphins (+6) @ San Diego Chargers: The Chargers have burned me twice it will not happen again. Or so I think. Miami's coming off a well-played game in which they still couldn't win. That's very worrysome. However, their defense is well-rested and the slow Chargers will win, yet not cover. San Diego 24 Miami 20

Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders (+2): Yeah, I think so. Oakland 16 Denver 9

Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) @ Arizona Cardinals: What, no love for the Cardinals? I understand, I mean the Colts have to be exhausted on defense and on a short week it's no fun facing a Cardinals team at that University of Phoenix stadium which will be ROCKIN. But after that scintillating performance by Peyton Manning, I just can't doubt him. I really can't. Shootout in the desert which will be fun for everyone on SNF. Indianapolis 31 Arizona 28

Carolina Panthers (+8.5) @ Dallas Cowboys: Ehhhh...could go either way in terms of the spread...but any offense led by Jake Delhomme ain't gonna win you shit. Dallas 24 Carolina 17

And so on.

College Football Top 25 Bettors Guide.

Season Debut.

#1 Florida @ Kentucky (+22.5)- 6pm (ESPN2): The spread covering beasts from Gainesville actually didn't cover last week vs. the Vols in a game many thought Urban Meyer would try to blow a team out the water. Curious to see what happens here in Florida's first road game of the season. They'll get the job done but it'll be closer than the experts think. Florida 45 Kentucky 24

UTEP @ #2 Texas (-36)- 330pm (FSN): UT is actually 0-3 ATS this season; as their offense hasn't been as explosive as everyone has envisioned. I think though they'll be unleashed against a UTEP squad that has no concept of defense. Texas 59 UTEP 14

Arkansas (+17.5) @ #3 Alabama- 330pm (CBS): Bama is a tricky team; as they can blow you out the water (see game vs. North Texas last week) or they will have a stretch in a game where they stagnate just enough to not cover. This will be one of those games and they will barely not cover. Alabama 31 Arkansas 17

#4 Mississippi (-3.5) @ South Carolina- 730pm Thursday (ESPN): These two teams are more evenly matched than people think...and for Ole Miss this will be their first true test of the season to prove their lofty ranking. I think they'll be fine. Mississippi 23 South Carolina 13

Iowa @ #5 Penn State (-9.5)- 8pm (ABC): I've flip flopped all week as to who I think will cover. Then I need to consider it's a night game at Happy Valley + the revenge Penn State is willing to seek and those add up well enough for me. Penn State 28 Iowa 14

#6 California @ Oregon (+5.5)- 330pm (ABC): The line has shifted two points in Oregon's favor since it first came out and with due reason; Autzen Stadium while not as intimidating as it used to be, is still a difficult place for an opponent. I look for Jahvid Best to continue getting the job done, but Oregon will be fired up to prove that they're a part of the Pac-10 elite and regain their respect. Upset Alert of the Week: Oregon 34 California 31.

#7 LSU (-12.5) @ Mississippi State- 1220pm: Starksville can be a trap place for an opponent and LSU could catch themselves looking ahead to next week's revenge game at Georgia...but Mississippi State just doesn't have it anymore. LSU 31 Mississippi State 7

#8 Boise State @ Bowling Green (+16.5)- 7pm: These games boggle my mind because you never know what to expect from them. We know Boise can get the job done and they will...but a team like BG I bet will be willing to pull out all the stops and find a way to cover. Barely. Boise State 37 Bowling Green 21

#9 Miami (FL) (-2.5) @ #11 Virginia Tech- 330pm (ABC): Game of the Week. Both teams have the capability of producing the big play so defenses need to be put on high alert. Blacksburg is gonna be rowdy but the U has already had one tough road test at Florida State so it shouldn't affect them. Plus, their team speed will give Tech fits similar to what Alabama was able to do to them. Miami (FL) 30 Virginia Tech 21

Washington State @ #12 USC (-45)- 1015pm (FSN): Gulp. Wazzu needed SMU to self-destruct last week just to somehow pull out a win in OT (SMU was up 24-7 in the 3rd). USC just lost. USC needs to take it out on someone. USC won 69-0 at Pullman last year. Oh no. USC 63 Washington State 3

Illinois (+14) @ #13 Ohio State- 330pm: Illinois has all the talent in the world yet they haven't found a way to put it together constantly. Here's one of these games where they could put a scare into the Buckeyes similar to the upset they pulled in 2007 in the very same venue. Ohio State is always shaky to me also. They'll get the job done but it won't be something to be proud of. Ohio State 27 Illinois 24

Fresno State (+16.5) @ #14 Cincinnati- Noon: Cincinnati is the real deal; you cannot deny this. Fresno State always tries hard in these games so they'll be able to cover; but you have to wonder if they should tone down their level of competition or have these teams travel to face them in Fresno. A garbage TD in the waning minutes makes Cincy bettors livid. Cincinnati 41 Fresno State 27

#15 TCU (+2.5) @ Clemson- 330pm: This game is VERY interesting. TCU plays like they're an ACC team themselves (solid defense; decent offense) and they are the underdogs since they're coming to Death Valley. As a non-BCS school these games are extra important for TCU and they'll get the job done straight up. TCU 21 Clemson 14

Grambling @ #16 Oklahoma State (NL): Grambling is a FCS school so there's no line. Shoot em up. Oklahoma State 52 Grambling 10

Texas Tech (pick 'em) @ #17 Houston- 915pm (ESPN2): Another very interesting affair with a team that has had 2 weeks to bask in the glow of upsetting a then top-5 team on the road. Now thrust in the national spotlight, how will they handle it? Houston will be fine...but these pinball games go down to the wire and as we saw in Austin last week, Texas Tech still has the capability of being a tough out. Plus they need to salvage some Big 12 pride here. Houston's 2 week reign being ranked comes to an end, but it won't come without a fight. Texas Tech 45 Houston 42

South Florida @ #18 Florida State (-14)- Noon: So there's word that USF's starting QB Matt Grothe is out for the season. Not good. Since it's an in-state game this one will begin tough...but FSU's talent will overwhelm USF late. Plus, they haven't given their home fans anything to cheer about yet (the BYU win was in Provo). Florida State 34 South Florida 14

Colorado State @ #19 BYU (-17)- 6pm: The Mormon squad got hit in the mouth by a much more athletic Florida State team and never recovered. With that comes picking up the pieces of whatever's left of a BCS berth and someone's gonna have to pay for it. Colorado State does have heart and can pull a trick from the hat every now and then...but I expect BYU to be focused and ready to rock. BYU 52 Colorado State 28

Southern Mississippi @ #20 Kansas (-14)- Noon: Brett Favre's alma mater is trying to re-establish themselves as a respectable program again. They barely beat an atrocious Virginia squad 37-34 at home last week. They're not ready. Kansas 42 Southern Mississippi 17

Arizona State @ #21 Georgia (-12)- 7pm: The young Bulldogs should handle the Sun Devils without much of an issue. Georgia 34 Arizona State 13

#22 North Carolina @ Georgia Tech (-2.5)- Noon: Only in the ACC can you be ranked and still an underdog. Why? Because it's like musical chairs. Fresh off of being annihilated by Miami, the Yellow Jackets squad will get the job done here. Georgia Tech 31 North Carolina 20

Indiana @ #23 Michigan (-20)- Noon: LOL. Michigan 38 Indiana 7

#24 Washington (+7.5) @ Stanford- 9pm: Whoa, talk about lack of respect. You upset the #3 team in the nation but you're being given 7.5. I mean it's with due cause, Washington was the only winless team in the nation last year but the past is the past. But you can already see a change in the air with Steve Sarkasian as coach and when Jake Lockler is healthy...this is a completely different team. Stanford is solid, but 7.5 point favorites my God. Washington pulls off the "upset". Washington 28 Stanford 23

UL-Lafayette @ #25 Nebraska (-28)- 7pm: Beware of the Rajun Cajuns. Kansas State didn't heed warning and lost to them. 2 things tho. This is in Lincoln and Nebraska is much better than K-State. Combine that with them seething over a last second heartbreaker on the road and this is a recipe for disaster. Nebraska 45 UL-Lafayette 7

And so on.

Friday, September 18, 2009

NFL Week 2 Bettors Guide.

Season Debut. Last Year- 81-43-1 straight up; 58-55-1 against the spread. Playoffs: 6-5 straight up & against the spread.

Houston Texans (+6.5) @ Tennessee Titans: The Texans are coming off a humbling loss to the Jets where they got nothing going offensively. Meanwhile, the Titans did play tough on the road against the defending champions but came up just short. I don't expect Houston to have 2 consecutive clunkers especially with that offense...even if Andre Johnson now has to match up with Courtney Finnegan and that is the key. If they can keep their offense on the field in this one, their D won't get worn out by the Titans' running game. Houston 21 Tennessee 17

New Orleans Saints (-1) @ Philadelphia Eagles: What's comical about this one is that the over/under is only 46. With these 2 defensive sieves they should easily go above and beyond that. Don't let Philly's 38-10 win fool you. Jake Delhomme is the worst starting QB in the NFL...meanwhile Drew Bress is arguably the best and he will light up that secondary. The Eagles' QB situation is a bit muddy coming into it but they'll still put up points. But you simply don't outgun the Saints. New Orleans 35 Philadelphia 28

New England Patriots @ New York Jets (+3.5): Main reason why the Jets are underdogs here is because the Pats have won 8 straight at the Meadowlands. The Patriots are notorious for putting teams' foots in their mouths, but this year just feels different. A very unimpressive home victory over Buffalo left this club angry but the Jets unlike recent years are chompin at the bit. Brady looked extremely flustered against a mediocre Bills defense and with Rex Ryan's schemes I look for the frustration to continue. I normally don't bet on my boys but. New York 20 New England 14

Cincinnati Bengals (+9) @ Green Bay Packers : Don't be fooled by the Bengals' loss to the Broncos...that was a fluke play for the ages. Their D has looked extremely competent dating back to last December and although Aaron Rodgers is certainly no Kyle Orton...nine points is a LOT against a team who can match them if all the pieces fit in the puzzle. Green Bay 23 Cincinnati 17

Oakland Raiders (+3) @ Kansas City Chiefs: This seems to be the sexy underdog pick of the week and I don't blame anyone for it. The Raiders play KC very tough at Arrowhead usually and every game since 2003 has been decided by a TD or less. Both teams tried so fuckin hard last week but came up short. I expect a low scoring game as Oakland's aggressive D will keep KC off balance; however Jamarcus Russell's inadequacies will keep it close. Oakland pulls it out tho. Oakland 17 Kansas City 13

Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3): People are probably bewildered as to why the defending NFC champions are being given 3 points against a team in disarray such as the Jaguars. But let's face it, until the Cardinals can look competent traveling to the East Coast for a 1pm game, I will eat the -3 all day; I don't care how bad the Jags will be this year. Plus, that Super Bowl hangover needs to be treated PRONTO. Jacksonville 24 Arizona 14

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (+10): Call me crazy but I think the Lions will cover here. They gave the defending NFC North champions nightmares last year, as they only lost to them by 2 and 4 points in their games...not to mention they held Adrian Peterson in check (which is the key). The Vikings' pass D is suspect and anytime you have Brett Favre under center as the opposing QB...you have a chance. The Lions do. Will they win? I'd be on crack to believe that but I'm gonna give them a benefit of a doubt to cover. No question. Minnesota 23 Detroit 20

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (-6): 6 points is a lot especially when these two teams tango...but if Carolina does not get their run game established and Delhomme has to throw...all bets are off. Atlanta 27 Carolina 14

St. Louis Rams (+9.5) @ Washington Redskins: If Jim Zorn loses for the 2nd straight year at home to the worst team in the NFL in my opinion...his hot seat will be at 212 degrees Fahrenheit. The Skins look terrible on offense, serviceable on D but there's not a chance they cover. I feel bad for anyone who has to watch this. Washington 14 St. Louis 13

Tampa Bay Bucs @ Buffalo Bills (-5): The Bucs traveling up north to face a team that is seething after blowing it last Monday is a recipe for disaster. Buffalo 31 Tampa Bay 14

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (-1.5): Raise your hands if you thought the Niners would beat the Cardinals last week? Didn't think so (though ask a couple of my boys and they'll tell you I did). This will be a snoozer though, with SF getting a field goal late to make those who take em happy. San Francisco 17 Seattle 14

Baltimore Ravens @ San Diego Chargers (-3): The Chargers are the hardest team in the NFL to get a read on. Hell, both teams in general are looking to shake off disappointing victories. The Ravens do have the extra day of rest, but the Chargers have the home field and more to prove in this one. When they get up for games, they are really tough to beat. San Diego 27 Baltimore 20.

Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos (-3): Who cares really? Denver 10 Cleveland 6

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Chicago Bears: If Jay Cutler couldn't pass on an opportunistic Packers defense...how the hell is he gonna do so against arguably the best defense in the NFL. I don't care if he's at home or away. Meanwhile, no Brian Urlacher in the middle is gonna KILL the Bears defensively. Pittsburgh 21 Chicago 10

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-3): 3 seems to be the operative number for spreads this week. The Boys open up the new stadium and they will be fired up. The Giants are not pleased about this ha. As usual with these two, it will be a tough game but as usual the team that is at home usually covers and wins. No different here. Dallas 28 New York 21

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Miami Dolphins: Why on earth is this on Monday Night? See, this is why MNF has slipped in recent years. Colts shouldn't have much problems in their first return since winning Super Bowl 41. Indianapolis 28 Miami 13

And so on.