Thursday, September 24, 2009

College Football Top 25 Bettors Guide.

Season Debut.

#1 Florida @ Kentucky (+22.5)- 6pm (ESPN2): The spread covering beasts from Gainesville actually didn't cover last week vs. the Vols in a game many thought Urban Meyer would try to blow a team out the water. Curious to see what happens here in Florida's first road game of the season. They'll get the job done but it'll be closer than the experts think. Florida 45 Kentucky 24

UTEP @ #2 Texas (-36)- 330pm (FSN): UT is actually 0-3 ATS this season; as their offense hasn't been as explosive as everyone has envisioned. I think though they'll be unleashed against a UTEP squad that has no concept of defense. Texas 59 UTEP 14

Arkansas (+17.5) @ #3 Alabama- 330pm (CBS): Bama is a tricky team; as they can blow you out the water (see game vs. North Texas last week) or they will have a stretch in a game where they stagnate just enough to not cover. This will be one of those games and they will barely not cover. Alabama 31 Arkansas 17

#4 Mississippi (-3.5) @ South Carolina- 730pm Thursday (ESPN): These two teams are more evenly matched than people think...and for Ole Miss this will be their first true test of the season to prove their lofty ranking. I think they'll be fine. Mississippi 23 South Carolina 13

Iowa @ #5 Penn State (-9.5)- 8pm (ABC): I've flip flopped all week as to who I think will cover. Then I need to consider it's a night game at Happy Valley + the revenge Penn State is willing to seek and those add up well enough for me. Penn State 28 Iowa 14

#6 California @ Oregon (+5.5)- 330pm (ABC): The line has shifted two points in Oregon's favor since it first came out and with due reason; Autzen Stadium while not as intimidating as it used to be, is still a difficult place for an opponent. I look for Jahvid Best to continue getting the job done, but Oregon will be fired up to prove that they're a part of the Pac-10 elite and regain their respect. Upset Alert of the Week: Oregon 34 California 31.

#7 LSU (-12.5) @ Mississippi State- 1220pm: Starksville can be a trap place for an opponent and LSU could catch themselves looking ahead to next week's revenge game at Georgia...but Mississippi State just doesn't have it anymore. LSU 31 Mississippi State 7

#8 Boise State @ Bowling Green (+16.5)- 7pm: These games boggle my mind because you never know what to expect from them. We know Boise can get the job done and they will...but a team like BG I bet will be willing to pull out all the stops and find a way to cover. Barely. Boise State 37 Bowling Green 21

#9 Miami (FL) (-2.5) @ #11 Virginia Tech- 330pm (ABC): Game of the Week. Both teams have the capability of producing the big play so defenses need to be put on high alert. Blacksburg is gonna be rowdy but the U has already had one tough road test at Florida State so it shouldn't affect them. Plus, their team speed will give Tech fits similar to what Alabama was able to do to them. Miami (FL) 30 Virginia Tech 21

Washington State @ #12 USC (-45)- 1015pm (FSN): Gulp. Wazzu needed SMU to self-destruct last week just to somehow pull out a win in OT (SMU was up 24-7 in the 3rd). USC just lost. USC needs to take it out on someone. USC won 69-0 at Pullman last year. Oh no. USC 63 Washington State 3

Illinois (+14) @ #13 Ohio State- 330pm: Illinois has all the talent in the world yet they haven't found a way to put it together constantly. Here's one of these games where they could put a scare into the Buckeyes similar to the upset they pulled in 2007 in the very same venue. Ohio State is always shaky to me also. They'll get the job done but it won't be something to be proud of. Ohio State 27 Illinois 24

Fresno State (+16.5) @ #14 Cincinnati- Noon: Cincinnati is the real deal; you cannot deny this. Fresno State always tries hard in these games so they'll be able to cover; but you have to wonder if they should tone down their level of competition or have these teams travel to face them in Fresno. A garbage TD in the waning minutes makes Cincy bettors livid. Cincinnati 41 Fresno State 27

#15 TCU (+2.5) @ Clemson- 330pm: This game is VERY interesting. TCU plays like they're an ACC team themselves (solid defense; decent offense) and they are the underdogs since they're coming to Death Valley. As a non-BCS school these games are extra important for TCU and they'll get the job done straight up. TCU 21 Clemson 14

Grambling @ #16 Oklahoma State (NL): Grambling is a FCS school so there's no line. Shoot em up. Oklahoma State 52 Grambling 10

Texas Tech (pick 'em) @ #17 Houston- 915pm (ESPN2): Another very interesting affair with a team that has had 2 weeks to bask in the glow of upsetting a then top-5 team on the road. Now thrust in the national spotlight, how will they handle it? Houston will be fine...but these pinball games go down to the wire and as we saw in Austin last week, Texas Tech still has the capability of being a tough out. Plus they need to salvage some Big 12 pride here. Houston's 2 week reign being ranked comes to an end, but it won't come without a fight. Texas Tech 45 Houston 42

South Florida @ #18 Florida State (-14)- Noon: So there's word that USF's starting QB Matt Grothe is out for the season. Not good. Since it's an in-state game this one will begin tough...but FSU's talent will overwhelm USF late. Plus, they haven't given their home fans anything to cheer about yet (the BYU win was in Provo). Florida State 34 South Florida 14

Colorado State @ #19 BYU (-17)- 6pm: The Mormon squad got hit in the mouth by a much more athletic Florida State team and never recovered. With that comes picking up the pieces of whatever's left of a BCS berth and someone's gonna have to pay for it. Colorado State does have heart and can pull a trick from the hat every now and then...but I expect BYU to be focused and ready to rock. BYU 52 Colorado State 28

Southern Mississippi @ #20 Kansas (-14)- Noon: Brett Favre's alma mater is trying to re-establish themselves as a respectable program again. They barely beat an atrocious Virginia squad 37-34 at home last week. They're not ready. Kansas 42 Southern Mississippi 17

Arizona State @ #21 Georgia (-12)- 7pm: The young Bulldogs should handle the Sun Devils without much of an issue. Georgia 34 Arizona State 13

#22 North Carolina @ Georgia Tech (-2.5)- Noon: Only in the ACC can you be ranked and still an underdog. Why? Because it's like musical chairs. Fresh off of being annihilated by Miami, the Yellow Jackets squad will get the job done here. Georgia Tech 31 North Carolina 20

Indiana @ #23 Michigan (-20)- Noon: LOL. Michigan 38 Indiana 7

#24 Washington (+7.5) @ Stanford- 9pm: Whoa, talk about lack of respect. You upset the #3 team in the nation but you're being given 7.5. I mean it's with due cause, Washington was the only winless team in the nation last year but the past is the past. But you can already see a change in the air with Steve Sarkasian as coach and when Jake Lockler is healthy...this is a completely different team. Stanford is solid, but 7.5 point favorites my God. Washington pulls off the "upset". Washington 28 Stanford 23

UL-Lafayette @ #25 Nebraska (-28)- 7pm: Beware of the Rajun Cajuns. Kansas State didn't heed warning and lost to them. 2 things tho. This is in Lincoln and Nebraska is much better than K-State. Combine that with them seething over a last second heartbreaker on the road and this is a recipe for disaster. Nebraska 45 UL-Lafayette 7

And so on.

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