Sunday, November 9, 2008

The Clutchness of the Gambling Gods.

I've come to terms with respecting them. The more money you put down or the more teams you try to place in a parlay, the more dastardly they become. It never, ever fails. This past weekend I had a successful 4-teamer, but at the same time, a few extremely close calls that were too anguishing. And one bet which truly grinded my gears. Prepare yourselves:

Example 1:
Straight Wager 11/03/08 23:34 ET
bet 130.00 to win 118.18 Result: Wager Lost
ArizonaU 59
WashingtonSt 28 11/08/08(17:00 ET)
ArizonaU -41

One of the safest bets in the nation up until this point was Washington State (arguably the worst team in college football) getting annihilated, to the point where almost anybody could cover against them. They had been outscored in Pac-10 play 350-30 and have one win, against a FCS (D-1AA) team. Their smallest margin of defeat this year is 25. The last 2 games they had lost by a combined 127-0. Not so fast my friend, for one week only, they looked like a football team on offense. Had I only put $30, I guarantee this hits.

Example 2:
Parlay (6 Teams) 11/05/08 21:47 ET
bet 8.27 to win 375.70 Result: Wager Lost
1Clippers(LA) 1stHalf 51
1Lakers(LA) 1stHalf 47
1Lakers(LA) -7.5 (-115)

1Clippers(LA) 1stHalf 51
1Lakers(LA) 1stHalf 47
Over 97

1Grizzlies(Memphis) 1stHalf 41
1Kings(Sacramento) 1stHalf 48
1Kings(Sacramento) -1.5

1Grizzlies(Memphis) 1stHalf 41
1Kings(Sacramento) 1stHalf 48
Under 96.5

1Nuggets(Denver) 1stHalf 59
1Warriors(GoldenState) 1stHalf 58
1Nuggets(Denver) +2 (-115)

1Nuggets(Denver) 1stHalf 59
1Warriors(GoldenState) 1stHalf 58
Over 105.5

Look at the beauty of this. Except that somehow the Clippers, who up to this point had been playing real shitty, actually jumped ahead of the Lakers early in the game. The Lakers made a run but there was no way they were gonna cover. Just to spite me, the Gods have both teams to barely go over with seconds remaining in the half, just so that only one scenario fucked me out of a huge payday. Honestly had I picked the Clippers to cover, the Gods probably would've had the total just go under. Everything else was safe for the most part.

Example 3:
Straight Wager 11/05/08 21:48 ET
bet 50.00 to win 65.00 Result: Wager Lost

Nuggets(Denver) 101
Warriors(GoldenState) 111
Nuggets(Denver) +130

I had won a few games in a row rather easily and rebuilding some confidence. Seeing this matchup, I figured it was gonna be a close game but the Nuggets would win this, even without Chauncey Billups about to join the team. There was a point in the first quarter where I was lookin like a pure genius, as the Nuggets were up 32-15. However, Golden State kept chipping away and eventually pulled away fuck. This was the game Carmelo Anthony wanted to score 44 to honor Barack Obama being the 44th president of the US. He scored 28 so I guess he was honoring Woodrow Wilson.

Example 4:
Parlay (4 Teams) 11/06/08 11:21 ET
bet 8.96 to win 89.60 Result: Wager Lost
Maryland 13
VirginiaTech 23
VirginiaTech -3

Maryland 13
VirginiaTech 23
Under 41.5

TCU 10
Utah 13
TCU -1.5

TCU 10
Utah 13
Under 42.5

I'm still fuming over this right now. There was never a question about the Maryland-VA Tech game overall, and the TCU-Utah game it looked like no one was interested in scoring so my under was safe. TCU was up 10-6 seemingly forever and in firm control of the game. However, the fourth quarter hits, and the Gambling Gods I guess panicked. TCU's kicker clanks not one but TWO field goals off the uprights...including one with 2:30 left in the game which would have put TCU up 7. Then on Utah's final drive, TCU commits a pass interference penalty on 4th down, keeping Utah's drive alive where they eventually score with about 30 seconds left. You got to be kidding me.

But then, out of the blue, the Gods seeing my anguish do me one favor:

Parlay (4 Teams) 11/06/08 23:41 ET
bet 7.00 to win 70.00 (paid 77.0) Result: Wager Won
Grizzlies(Memphis) 109
Warriors(GoldenState) 104
Over 194.5

Mavericks(Dallas) 105
Nuggets(Denver) 108
Over 203

Pistons(Detroit) 96
Nets(NewJersey) 103
Over 190.5

Raptors(Toronto) 92
Hawks(Atlanta) 110
Over 182.5

There were some doubts early on in a couple of those games, but the scoring was in earnest in the 2nd half of just about all of them.

With the Gods now witnessing my excitement of this, they break me down once again with a devastating loss:

Parlay (4 Teams) 11/08/08 03:41 ET
bet 22.00 to win 220.00 Result: Wager Lost
Army 31
Rice 38
Rice -9.5

BowlingGreen 28
Ohio 3
BowlingGreen -3

IowaSt 24
Colorado 28
Over 47.5

Kansas 35
Nebraska 45
Over 61.5

The Bowling Green game was never in doubt, and the two Big 12 games, although they both started off real slow, once again the scoring kicked in earnest in the 2nd halves of both those games. I even got some help in the Iowa State-Colorado game because Colorado scored with about 2 minutes left. With the Gods now noticing Rice was on their way to running away with an easy victory (38-17 heading into the 4th quarter and Rice threatening to score yet again), they get to work:
1) Rice completes a 13 yard pass down to Army's 30 but the WR fumbles and Army gets the ball.
2) Army promptly scores.
3) Rice punts.
4) Army goes on an 89 yard annoying as fuck drive, in which they go 4-4 on 3rd down conversions (literally if they needed 4 yards they'd get 5 or 6) and then break off a 43 yard TD run.
5) Rice gets the ball back but they get stuffed on a 4th and 1 on the Army 31, rather than go for a FG. Their kicker must suck.
6) Rice's defense FINALLY stops Army but it's too late then.

The pain continues even more though:

Parlay (7 Teams) 11/08/08 21:21 ET
bet 5.00 to win 375.00 Result: Wager Lost
Bills(Buffalo) 10
Patriots(NewEngland) 20
Under 41.5

Jaguars(Jacksonville) 38
Lions(Detroit) 14
Under 43.5

Packers(GreenBay) 27
Vikings(Minnesota) 28
Under 44.5

Panthers(Carolina) 17
Raiders(Oakland) 6
Under 37.5

Rams(StLouis) 3
Jets(NewYork) 47
Over 44

Saints(NewOrleans) 20
Falcons(Atlanta) 34
Over 50

Titans(Tennessee) 21
Bears(Chicago) 14
Under 38.5

I hit 5 out of 7. If Detroit wasn't so shitty against the run/not so shitty in the 2nd quarter, I might have had a chance with that under...meanwhile, Minnesota's defense was amazing, yet because the Packers scored 2 non-offensive TDs, that makes the difference in that one. Just to add insult to injury, the Saints-Falcons make me correct with their game on the very last play of the game (Drew Brees TD pass).

And the grand finale:
Parlay (6 Teams) 11/09/08 16:09 ET
bet 5.00 to win 200.00 Result: Wager Lost
1Grizzlies(Memphis) 1stHalf 54
1Nuggets(Denver) 1stHalf 53
Over 97.5

1Hawks(Atlanta) 1stHalf 38
1Thunder(OklahomaCity) 1stHalf 41
1Hawks(Atlanta) -2.5

1Hawks(Atlanta) 1stHalf 38
1Thunder(OklahomaCity) 1stHalf 41
Under 92

1Rockets(Houston) 1stHalf 48
1Lakers(LA) 1stHalf 50
Under 97

1Warriors(GoldenState) 1stHalf 57
1Kings(Sacramento) 1stHalf 63
1Kings(Sacramento) -1.5

1Warriors(GoldenState) 1stHalf 57
1Kings(Sacramento) 1stHalf 63
Over 108

Honestly, this was probably my least devastating loss out of all of these. But two things I want to point out. First, the Hawks were seemingly up the entire first half but the Thunder must have went on a late run, so that was disappointing. I would have been infuriated however had the Hawks covered and I witnessed the Rockets-Lakers barely go over. That's why whoever makes up these spreads and totals are pure fuckin geniuses, because for the longest time it looked like there was no way the Rockets-Lakers were going over for the first half.

Grand total of money I barely missed out of this weekend: $1,433.48

Good Lord.

And so on.

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