Tuesday, November 25, 2008

College Football Top 25 Bettors Guide.

Ahh Rivalry week. Usually at this time of year all bets are off; throw away the records all that good shit because far too often when you label a team an underdog, that just adds more fuel to their fire and they wind up pulling off the upset. Hence, you'll usually see these point spreads a bit lower than usual...well in most games. It can be a tough week; but you gotta also be realistic at the same time.

Last Week: 9-5 straight up; 7-6 against the spread (no line in the Citadel-Florida massacre)
Past 3 Weeks: 38-14 straight up; 26-25 against the spread.

Tonight:
Western Michigan @ #15 Ball State (-10.5) (7pm- ESPN2): Ball State is the forgotten mid-major team ranked in the BCS. Even if they win out they won't make it to one of the lucrative bowl games (Utah has that on lock) but they have plenty incentive enough in this one. Western is 9-2, 6-1 in conference themselves and an upset for them here could force a 3-way tie (if Central Michigan beats Eastern Michigan- a loss by Central in that case would send Western to the MAC title game). Ultimately I think BSU's emotions of Senior Night and knowing what's at stake for themselves get them over the hump in a high-scoring one. Ball State 38 Western Michigan 24

Thanksgiving:
Texas A&M (+35) @ #2 Texas (8pm- ESPN): Good God almighty. For a team who has won 2 straight in this series and to be pegged as this much of an underdog has got to be fluxommed. But Texas A&M has been pretty horrible in their Big 12 South games this year (yes including Baylor)- allowing 56, 41, 43 and 66 points in those contests and losing by an average of 26 ppg. Texas is gonna be looking for some sweet revenge and with Heisman Trophy candidate Colt McCoy in the house, there'll be no worries for Longhorn faithful in terms of a victory. But asking to cover 5 TDs is a bit much. Texas 52 Texas A&M 21

Friday:
West Virginia (-3.5) @ #25 Pittsburgh (Noon- ABC): Last year down in Morgantown, Pitt pulled off a 10-6 upset of the then #2 ranked Mountaineers and ended their hopes of going to the National Championship game (even though WVU had already clinched at least a share of the Big East title). This year, the stakes are equal for both teams as they both have faint chances to still win the Big East and an Orange Bowl berth. Nothing strikes me as impressive with either team but WVU is a tad more balanced and gets the close W. West Virginia 21 Pittsburgh 17

Fresno State @ #9 Boise State (-21) (6pm- ESPN2): Surprisingly there's not much at stake here for either team. Both teams are firmly entrenched in bowl berths, and Boise isn't gonna leapfrog Utah for the BCS berth even with a win here. Plus they clinched the WAC last Saturday. Nevertheless, here we are...Boise attempting to defend their blue-turf and win their 49th straight game at home. That hasn't been a problem vs. Fresno State- winning the last 3 home meetings by an average of 29 points. I expect the same here. Boise State 35 Fresno State 13

Saturday:
#22 Georgia Tech @ #11 Georgia (-8) (Noon- CBS): Georgia Tech had a convincing victory over The U last Thursday and is riding a wave of momentum heading into this one. Meanwhile, Georgia has had a week off after two straight close calls on the road with Kentucky and Auburn. Georgia has won 7 consecutive times although there have been some close games recently; with 4 of the past five years being decided by less than 10 points. They suck covering the spread...but I think for once, they will overcome. Georgia 27 Georgia Tech 17

I'm getting lazy so I'm just gonna go express-style from here on in.

Syracuse @ #16 Cincinnati (-22) (Noon): It's fitting that Cinci beats the Orangemen...to punch their ticket to the Orange Bowl. Expect them to show no mercy on Syracuse. They're not Notre Dame ya know? Cincinnati 35 Syracuse 10

Kansas vs. #13 Missouri (-14) (1230pm- FSN): This could be 25 and I'd take Missouri. Face it, Kansas doesn't show up against ranked opponents. Mizzou 49 Kansas 24

Auburn @ #1 Alabama (-14) (330pm- CBS): Bama just knows all they gotta do is keep winning and they're OK. I'm sure they wanna do more than just that however especially on Auburn's hapless offense. Alabama 24 Auburn 7

#4 Florida (-16.5) @ #20 Florida State (330pm- ABC): Most important rule of betting in college football- ALWAYS TAKE FLORIDA TO COVER. Florida 41 Florida State 21

Baylor @ #7 Texas Tech (-20.5) (330pm): Baylor is okay like I've said before...but when they face ranked teams they get smacked around...and you know TT is gonna want to take it out on someone. BAD. Texas Tech 55 Baylor 24

Maryland (+7) @ #21 Boston College (330pm- ABC): These are the games Maryland thrives on. 4-0 as an unranked team facing a ranked team. They'll assist Florida State into getting to the ACC title game because of this. Maryland 21 Boston College 20

#23 Oregon @ #17 Oregon State (-3.5) (7pm- Versus): Oregon State has come full circle this year and that win versus (no pun intended) USC...pays off in what will be a close tight game. Oregon State 28 Oregon 24

#3 Oklahoma (-7) @ #12 Oklahoma State (8pm- ABC): For a team that thrives on napalming opponents in the first half this is ridiculously generous. OK State does play OU tough in Stillwater, but this psychotic offense of OU will "Let'er Rip". Oklahoma 56 Oklahoma State 31

Notre Dame (+30) @ #5 USC (8pm- ESPN): USC sucks versus the spread. Notre Dame should be embarassed after what happened to them versus Syracuse. It won't be pretty but like I said...USC can't cover spreads, and their offense hasn't caught up to their defense just yet. But on Saturday night it will not matter. USC 31 Notre Dame 3

And so on.

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