NFL Week 12 Bettors Guide.

I didn't get to add the San Diego @ Denver game to the blog...but I posted it on my Facebook having the Chargers covering the 5.5 and winning 24-10 (they won 32-3). Therefore:

Last week: 11-5 straight up & 7-9 against the spread
Overall: 94-49 straight up & 75-67-1 against the spread

Green Bay Packers (-11.5) @ Detroit Lions: Being forced to play Daunte Culpepper is not gonna be a pretty sight. As long as Aaron Rodgers gets some protection, he will have no problem with a defense that allowed the Browns to nearly equal their touchdown total ALL SEASON. Green Bay 34 Detroit 17

Oakland Raiders @ Dallas Cowboys (-13.5): The Raiders in the game immediately following a win have gotten outscored 61-3. The Cowboys in their past 3 Thanksgiving games have won 38-10, 34-3 and 34-9. You do the math. Dallas 31 Oakland 8

New York Giants @ Denver Broncos (+6.5): The Broncos are in a free-fall for the ages, having lost their last four games all by a combined 117-37. The Giants snapped their losing streak..albeit barely in an overtime win last week. I look for the Broncos sensing desperation to bounce back on the defensive side of the ball while doing just enough on offense against the suddenly vulnerable Giants' D to pull off the upset. Denver 21 NY Giants 17

Miami Dolphins (-3) @ Buffalo Bills: The Bills showed some signs of life last week, nearly pulling off the SU upset before the Jags stole one. With that being said, it won't be cold enough yet in Buffalo for the Fins to be too concerned...they'll be able to control the clock. Miami 23 Buffalo 14

Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams (+3): Not having Marc Bulger hurts...but in all honesty what difference has that made in the past couple years? The Seahawks are absolutely nothing special and with the feistiness the Rams have shown the past three games LOOK OUT. They will be rewarded for this. St. Louis 21 Seattle 14

Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles (-9): 2 words for you- Big Play. That's what the Eagles can do, while the Redskins cannot. Anyone have any idea who the Redskins' starting RB is gonna be for this Sunday anyway. The Redskins' above average D can only do so much. Philadelphia 24 Washington 10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (-11.5): I tried...But I no longer can. Besides, Atlanta is a different beast at home. Atlanta 31 Tampa Bay 7

Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) @ Houston Texans: Those demoralizing losses take a toll on you (ask the Jets last week) and after a couple of close calls, the Colts will have an easier time this Sunday than what most people believe. Indianapolis 30 Houston 21

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (-14): We discovered that in fact...the Browns DO have an offense. Although they did score 20 on the Bengals in Week 2 as well, that I believe was an abomination also. We now return to your regularly scheduled programming already in progress. Cincinnati 24 Cleveland 6

Carolina Panthers (+3) @ New York Jets: Carolina isn't a good road team (and frankly besides the undefeated Saints, none of them in the AFC South are) but not only do they have the extra 3 days of rest, but they are certainly less dysfunctional than my boys are. Carolina 23 NY Jets 20

Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers (-3): Zzzzzzzzzz... San Francisco 17 Jacksonville 10

Kansas City Chiefs (+13.5) @ San Diego Chargers: The Chargers have been on a tear, playing football as a very high level...and they might take the Chiefs lightly in this one. Not to mention, the Chiefs are very very good covering the spread when given this many points. San Diego 27 Kansas City 17

Arizona Cardinals (+3) @ Tennessee Titans: The Cards are COMPLETELY different when Kurt Warner plays as opposed to Matt Leinart. They ran out to a 21-3 lead on the hapless Rams before Warner left, but stagnated with Leinart playing in the 2nd half. They are fortunate that Warner is playing in this one. The electrifying duo of Vince Young and Chris Johnson will give them fits, but the Cards will exploit the Titans through the air and snap the winning streak. Arizona 27 Tennessee 21

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings (-10.5): I'm still waiting for the other shoe to drop for Brett Favre. It won't be this week. Minnesota's swarming defense will force Jay Cutler into mistakes and turn this one ugly. Minnesota 31 Chicago 13

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens I will get back to when we get word on Roethlisberger.

New England Patriots (+3) @ New Orleans Saints: The Patriots are on a roll as much as I hate to admit it. Keep in mind that they had the Colts down at Indy 31-14 in the fourth before blowing it. They can easily do the same thing here against a Saints defense that's opportunistic...but vulnerable. You want to know how to slow down Drew Brees? Watch Jets-Saints film from Week 4. New England 31 New Orleans 21

NFL Week 11 Bettors Guide.

Arguably my best week of the year this past week...and I forgot to do Bears-49ers...which I would have guessed correctly also but it's all good. Let's keep up the momentum.

Last Week: 10-4 straight up & against the spread.
Overall: 83-44 straight up & 68-58-1 against the spread.

Miami Dolphins @ Carolina Panthers (-3.5): No Ronnie Brown for the rest of the season will throw this offense out of whack. Chad Henne will be forced to make plays that Jake Delhomme won't have to...and that's the difference tonight. Carolina 24 Miami 13

Buffalo Bills (+9) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: This is a game that Jacksonville should have no problem with...which means you gotta go against them at least spread-wise. In theory, MJD should have a field day with this Bills' sieve D...meanwhile with Ryan Fitzpatrick starting for the Bills it should be a nightmare...but... Jacksonville 23 Buffalo 17

Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) @ Kansas City Chiefs: Ehh. The Steelers coming off a frustrating loss should take it out on the Chiefs...who seemingly disappear the game after winning one. Pittsburgh 27 Kansas City 10

Indianapolis Colts (-1) @ Baltimore Ravens: If Peyton can come back from 31-14 in the 4th quarter at home to beat the Patriots...he shouldn't have too much issue with these Ravens; who looked very unimpressive last week at Cleveland on the offensive side of the ball. Indy still has home-field to play for and while Baltimore should be desperate here...I don't see them getting the job done. Indianapolis 28 Baltimore 20

Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings (-11): Seahawks are traveling...you know what that means. Minnesota 38 Seattle 7

Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) @ New York Giants: I never feel comfortable with the Giants and a big spread...especially in a game that is so important for both. The bye came at the perfect time for the G-Men as they were reeling heavily- particularly on defense. The Falcons meanwhile have regressed along with Matt Ryan's sophomore slump. The question is will Michael Turner play? If he doesn't I may lay the points on the Giants but for now I'll assume he does. NY Giants 27 Atlanta 21

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+11.5): Yeah I'm doing this. The Bucs have looked like a team the past couple of weeks...while the Saints have appeared to have reached their peak. While I don't believe that Drew Brees & company can be stopped by the Bucs' D; I don't see the Saints running away with it either. Josh Freeman has avoided making mistakes, and as long as he doesn't get baited by Darren Sharper & the ballhawking defense...the Bucs will cover. New Orleans 35 Tampa Bay 28

Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions (-3.5): The STUPOR BOWL. UNDER CITY USA LIVES HERE. Put it to you this way: the O/U is 38. The Browns have scored 29 TOTAL in their last 5 games. But hey...the Browns beat the Lions in preseason 27-10... What I Miss??? Detroit 13 Cleveland 3

San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) @ Green Bay Packers: The Pack had an excellent bounce back victory against the Cowboys which arguably was their best defensive performance of the season (the Browns are not an NFL team). The Niners were excellent themselves defensively in taking out the Bears. With that said, I do expect a tighter than expected game...UPSET CITY. San Francisco 20 Green Bay 17

Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys (-11): 11 points is a lot...but Romo and the Boys play much better at home offensively, and after that bad loss to Green Bay last week they will take it out on the disappointing Skins. Dallas 31 Washington 17

Arizona Cardinals (-9) @ St. Louis Rams: The Cards for some odd reason are 4-0 on the road and have scored 24+ in each of them. The Rams have been trying hard the past couple of weeks but they just run into a buzzsaw Sunday. Arizona 38 St. Louis 20

New York Jets (+10.5) @ New England Patriots: 10.5?? Really? Only three Jets games all season have been decided in double digits. The Jets have won SU 2 of the last 3 years in NE and covered in the other meeting as a 20 point underdog in 2007 (20-10). Both teams are seething. I understand Brady rarely ever loses back-to-back games and that's fine and good but have some respect. New England 27 NY Jets 21

Cincinnati Bengals (-9.5) @ Oakland Raiders: Kiss the Baby Jamarcus Russell. Bruce Gradkowski starts. What does that mean? The Raiders MIGHT be in contention to cover...for a full half instead of the first quarter. Cincinnati 31 Oakland 10

Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears (+3): The Eagles are the better team no doubt. However, I just have a feeling that in front of a nationally televised audience and to mainly save face, Jay Cutler will have one of his best performances of the year. Chicago 27 Philadelphia 23

Tennessee Titans (+4.5) @ Houston Texans: Something has to give. Vince Young is a winner...and he returns back home to Texas where he feels right at home. The Texans have never lost when featured on Prime Time. One thing's for sure tho and that's that Reliant Stadium will be host to OVER CITY. The ability for the Titans to slow the game down a tad more than the Texans wlll be the difference on Monday. Tennessee 31 Houston 28

NFL Week 10. Bettors Guide.

An unusual week...as I actually did better against the spread than I did straight up; but got back above .500.

Last Week: 7-6 straight up & 9-4 against the spread
Overall: 73-40 straight up & 58-54-1 against the spread

New Orleans Saints (-14) @ St. Louis Rams: You can't be serious. New Orleans 42 St. Louis 13

Jacksonville Jaguars (+6) @ New York Jets: With Jacksonville you don't know what to expect...hence why they are 4-4. Same thing with my boys; who in their four losses have seen one facet of their game totally disappear whether it's offense (Buffalo, @ New Orleans), defense (@ Miami) or special teams (Miami). Coming off a bye, my guys should be fresh and ready to go but this will be a closer one than what fans want to see...however, with New England coming up, a win is a win. NY Jets 21 Jacksonville 17

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers (+1.5): The Panthers have been playing better lately and it's because they've finally gone back to their bread & butter- the run game. They've also been more aggressive defensively. The Falcons don't travel all that well. This is a crucial game for them to keep pace in the Wild Card hunt but they will fail to get the job done here. Carolina 23 Atlanta 20

Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans (-7): The Bills get Trent Edwards back. Won't matter. Their defense, albeit opportunistic is SLOW...and is susceptible to getting hammered especially against the run. The Jets gashed them for 318 yards and now they get to face the NFL's leading rusher in Chris Johnson. NIGHTMARES. No Music City Miracle required this go-around. Tennessee 27 Buffalo 17

Detroit Lions (+16.5) @ Minnesota Vikings: As good as the Vikings have been this season, the Lions are still a team that as long as they're healthy offensively can give other teams fits. Plus, this is the second half of the season and we know about the Vikes' notorious 2nd half collapses. Won't happen this Sunday at all (TAKE THE OVER at 47)...but just be weary in point spread land as the Lions have corralled Adrian Peterson in the past. Minnesota 34 Detroit 21

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7): Seven points is A LOT. But it actually makes sense. The Bengals barely beat the Steelers minus Troy Polamalu at home after the Steelers came apart in the second half of that game. I can't see the Bengals sweeping them either. Even on a short week look for Big Ben & company to dissect this much improved defense...while slowing down Cedric Benson. Pittsburgh 28 Cincinnati 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10) @ Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins are just dreadful at covering huge spreads. Tampa has some rare momentum after their upset of the week last week and I look for them to continue playing hard here. Miami 24 Tampa Bay 21

Denver Broncos @ Washington Redskins (+3.5): Maybe it's my blind disdain for the Broncos but they have disappeared on the offensive side of the ball. The Redskins do actually have a defense...it's just that their offensively inept. This game screams the UNDER 37. I actually give the Skins the edge (even minus Clinton Portis) since the Broncos are traveling on a short week and the last time they were on the Beltway it didn't end so well. Washington 17 Denver 14

Kansas City Chiefs (+2) @ Oakland Raiders: The game of the weak. UNDER 36.5 ALL. DAY. AND. ALL. NIGHT. Kansas City 17 Oakland 10

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (-8.5): Why the Cardinals are only 1-3 at home is baffling...but they're facing a Seattle team they had no problems dispatching on the road AS A 3 POINT UNDERDOG. Vegas was on crack that week, this time...not so much. Sensing the 49ers still lurking in the division, look for a beatdown. Arizona 34 Seattle 14

Dallas Cowboys (-3) @ Green Bay Packers: As long as Perez Hilton could penetrate that offensive line (and no not in that fashion) of Green Bay's...I can't take Green Bay all that seriously. The Cowboys are in their perennial November surge where everything is clicking. Romo isn't making mistakes and their defense has stepped it up a couple notches. Dallas 27 Green Bay 21

Philadelphia Eagles @ San Diego Chargers (-1): The Eagles were exposed last week as a big-play team. When you can't hit the home run, they are pedestrian at best. The Chargers are peaking at the right time and suddenly not only find themselves in great shape in the playoff hunt, but right there in the division with Denver. Look for Rivers to continue his strong play and have a big day. San Diego 31 Philadelphia 21

New England Patriots (+2.5) @ Indianapolis Colts: The game of the week. I'd avoid this game at ALL COSTS but I have to make an educated guess. How Peyton Manning is still able to do it is a testament to him being the smartest QB in the NFL hands down. The Patriots however are playing much better football lately and with several huge matchups upcoming do not for one second believe that they won't be focused. I'd actually flirt with the under here since both defenses seem to know each other well...unfortunately I see the Colts' 17 game winning streak come to an end. New England 24 Indianapolis 21

Baltimore Ravens (-11) @ Cleveland Browns: The last time the Browns had a Monday night game at home, bettors had epic nightmares as not only did the Browns upset the Giants but they walloped them 35-14. Well, don't worry about that this time. Welcome to Under City, USA. Baltimore 27 Cleveland 7

NFL Week 9 Bettors Guide.

Had an atrocious week last week to put me below .500 ATS for the first time this season.

Last Week: 7-6 straight up & 3-10 against the spread
Overall: 66-34 straight up & 49-50-1 against the spread

Miami Dolphins (+10.5) @ New England Patriots: Pats have been world beaters the past two weeks...albeit it has been against the Bucs and Titans and they are fresh off of a bye. Meanwhile, if it wasn't for Ted Ginn Jr, the Dolphins would have gotten rocked by my Jets. Sounds like a mismatch...but this is a team that gives others fits. New England 27 Miami 20

Kansas City Chiefs (+6.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: I hate Jaguars games with a passion. When you think they'll win...they lose or struggle. When you think they'll get rocked...they win or put up a fight. The Chiefs try hard and with Jekyll and Hyde in the house they may very well pull this one out. Kansas City 23 Jacksonville 20- OT

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3): The Bengals own the Ravens for some reason...and they have proven they are for real. The Ravens are no slouch either and put Denver in their place...but all that did was expose who Denver is- smoke and mirrors. A high scoring game but the Bengals come out on top. Cincinnati 28 Baltimore 24

Green Bay Packers (-9.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Angry Packers team + Worst Team in NFL= oy. Green Bay 31 Tampa Bay 10

Arizona Cardinals (+3) @ Chicago Bears: They are who we thought they were! Or are they? The Bears are as average as they come...but they did lay the smackdown on the Browns. The Cardinals looked horrible against a Panthers teams looking for redemption and it's also hard to get a read on them. I just have more trust though in a team like Arizona to get up in a game like this. Arizona 24 Chicago 21

Washington Redskins @ Atlanta Falcons (-10): Ugh. Atlanta 24 Washington 9

Houston Texans (+9) @ Indianapolis Colts: The Colts aren't invincible...as the 49ers proved last week. The Texans look better every week...but were dealt a huge blow with the loss of Owen Daniels for the season. Nevertheless they always get up to face the class of the AFC South and a win here will serve notice to the rest of the NFL. Do they do it here...no. Do they earn respect tho? Absolutely. Indianapolis 31 Houston 24

Carolina Panthers (+13) @ New Orleans Saints: You ever had a weird feeling about a game? The Panthers swept the Saints last year, and actually held them to 7 points last year in a game. SEVEN. The Saints have never had this much attention squared on them before and the Panthers after making a statement in Arizona last week are gonna be feeling high for this one. Upset City. Carolina 30 New Orleans 27

Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks (-10): Shakes head. Seattle 31 Detroit 10

Tennessee Titans @ San Francisco 49ers (-4.5): Titans actually looked good last week. Which 49ers team will show up however? They've given the Texans and Colts fits and those are the better teams in the AFC South. The Titans...not so much tho. San Francisco 27 Tennessee 14

San Diego Chargers @ New York Giants (-4.5): Schizophrenia meets Slump. With the Chargers traveling east you cannot trust them. NY Giants 27 San Diego 21

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3): TAKE THE OVER. Philadelphia 34 Dallas 27

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Denver Broncos: The Broncos get these magical Mile High Powers but not Monday Night. Pittsburgh 24 Denver 16

And so on.

NFL Week 8 Bettors Guide.

Last Week: 9-4 straight up & 5-7-1 against the spread.
Overall: 59-28 straight up & 46-40-1 against the spread.

Express time.

Houston Texans (-3.5) @ Buffalo Bills: Bills have fucked with me the past 2 weeks. 3 times is a charm however since they'll actually be playing a team with an offense this time. Houston 27 Buffalo 17

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (-3.5): Honestly I'd tell you to stay away from this one because it's helter skelter but for some reason the Jets have an 11-game winning streak in 1pm games. It extends today after a last minute Miami drive falls short this time. NY Jets 24 Miami 20

San Francisco 49ers @ Indianapolis Colts (-13): Ha. Indianapolis 31 San Francisco 13

St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions (-3.5): The Rams have a legit chance in this game no bullshit. They just won't win that's all. Detroit 24 St. Louis 17

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys (-10): Seattle doesn't travel well whatsoever and they usually get blitzed. They fared horribly last year in the D and I expect more of the same this week. Dallas 34 Seattle 20

Cleveland Browns (+12.5) @ Chicago Bears: Do you really trust the Bears with that many points?? Fuck outta here. Chicago 21 Cleveland 13

Denver Broncos (+4.5) @ Baltimore Ravens: Time for me to stop doubting the Broncos who are one of two teams with a perfect record ATS (the Saints are the other). They know how to finish games while the Ravens cannot. Denver 24 Baltimore 21

NY Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (+1.5): The Giants are in a funk and I don't see it ending this week...even with the Eagles on a short week. Philadelphia 27 NY Giants 20

Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers (-16.5): The question though is which Raiders team will we see? Will it be the one that tried valiantly against the Chargers & beat the Eagles? Or will it be the one that got annihilated by the New York teams? I lean on the latter. San Diego 35 Oakland 10

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) @ Tennessee Titans: What? Jacksonville 21 Tennessee 14

Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals (-10): In the playoffs last year Jake Delhomme had a nightmare for the ages against the defending NFC champs. Oh and guess who has the NFL's top rated rush defense? If the Cards force Delhomme to throw again even with their 30th ranked pass defense...look out. Arizona 31 Carolina 17

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (-3.5): You be the judge. Does Favre make a triumphant return to Lambeau? I say no. I say stay away also but I have to make a choice here. Green Bay 28 Minnesota 21

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (-11.5): Monday Night in the Superdome= Raucous. Yezzir. Take the over and RUN. New Orleans 41 Atlanta 27

And so on