Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Top 25 Games Bettors Guide (College).

Respect the Gambling Gods but here's my take as to what will go down.

#1 USC- idle
#2 Oklahoma- idle

#3 Georgia (-7) @ Arizona State: You figure the line is this low because Georgia has to travel out west for the first time in decades; and not to mention ASU still has an explosive offense. Don't be fooled however by Georgia's mere 7 point victory over South Carolina last week- that series always has had low margins of victories. Not to mention ASU's recent track record vs. ranked teams suck. Oh, and they lost to UNLV last week at home looking forward to this game. Take UGA with the points as they should win 34-17.

#4 Florida (-7.5) @ Tennessee: The Gators 26-3 victory over the U was misleading, as they barely covered the spread bc of a late FG...not to mention only being up 9-3 heading into the 4th. Meanwhile, Tennessee covered their 30.5 spread by destroying UAB 35-3 after a slow start. The last two meetings in Knoxville have been decided by a combined 3 points (Tenn 30-28 in 04; Fla 21-20 in 06) and Tennessee will be looking for revenge after getting annihalated 59-20 last year. Take Tennessee with the points as I expect a 28-24 Gators victory.

Buffalo @ #5 Missouri (-34.5): Umm. In 3 games this year, Mizzou's first team offense has been forced to punt 4 times. All against Illinois. That's all you need to know. Take Mizzou and the points. Please. 63-21 is my prediction. Moving on...

#6 LSU (-2.5) @ #10 Auburn: This will be a knockout, dragout fight I'll tell you that much. I'm surprised that LSU's favored here- given the home team has won straight up since 2000. This is likely because of seeing Auburn's inept offense be held to 3 points last week @ Mississippi State. No team has won by more than 6 in four years (Auburn at home by 1 and 4; LSU by 3 and 6). LSU hasn't faced a defense like Auburn yet. Take Auburn straight up if you can.

Rice @ #7 Texas (-30): Although Rice has improved, Texas has manhandled their non-conference foes from Texas in recent history, especially Rice. Since 2004, they've only failed to cover the current spread once (35-13 in 2004) scoring 50+ points in each of those contests (51-10 in '05; 52-7 in '06; 58-14 in '07). Expect the same here. Take Texas with the points.

#8 Wisconsin- idle

#9 Alabama (-9.5) @ Arkansas: Expectations at Alabama are at a fever pitch right now looking impressive on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, many pundits believe Arkansas is the worst 2-0 team in the nation, needing to mount comebacks over powerhouses Western Illinois and Louisiana-Monroe. The spread is this low because most of these games have been tight and historically 'Bama has struggled with the Razorbacks. They haven't defeated them in Arkansas since 2002 and the last couple of games have gone down to the wire. Tough one, take Arkansas with the points.

Massachusetts @ #11 Texas Tech

#12 South Florida (-29) @ Florida International: Appears like a total mismatch on paper...but anytime you have two upstart programs getting ready to tango, you never know what can happen. The only time they met, FIU believe it or not staked to a 20-7 lead before USF came from behind to win 21-20. USF went on to go 9-4 that year while FIU was winless...the talent has gotten better at USF since then obviously while FIU seems to be stuck on stupid. However, with FIU christening a new stadium...I can't see FIU getting embarrassed. Take FIU with the points.

Troy @ #13 Ohio State (-21): I know what you're thinking. Troy= spread offense team. Ohio State= can't stop the spread. Survey says= trouble. And the thing is...I agree with you. Troy is a damn good football team. USC just shredded OSU's vaunted defense to the tune of 35 points and although Troy isn't nearly as talented as USC...they can and will cause fits. The main question is how OSU's psychie is after taking yet another trip to the woodshed. Ohio State wins...but take Troy with the points as OSU will have a tough time putting them away.

Wyoming @ #14 BYU (-28.5): The stats add up in this one. BYU's coming off a 59-0 whitewash of UCLA. Wyoming barely held off FCS' North Dakota State 16-13. Last year BYU defeated Wyoming 35-10 on the road. Wyoming hasn't defeated BYU in Provo since 1987 and 7 of 8 overall. Last game @ BYU in 2006: 55-7 Cougars. We get it. BYU with the points all the way.

#15 East Carolina (-7.5) @ North Carolina State: Last week I wondered aloud why the hell ECU was only favored by 13 against Tulane and it made sense why. Let-down game within their conference. I ask this question again against another inferior team; arguably one of the worst in the ACC. It's because historically especially against the ACC, they've been shaky. People jumped all over this team after their wins vs. VA Tech and West Virginia...but I'm still not sold on them yet. This game gives them the perfect opportunity to do so and NC State is terrible. ECU with the points (barely) in a 10 point victory.

Temple @ #16 Penn State (-28.5): Temple hasn't even scored on the Nittany Lions in 2 years. Never beaten them, never even really came close. Yes they're a much better team than the one that was the Big East Punching Bag. They could even be 3-0 if it wasn't for an OT loss to UConn and a Hail Mary to Buffalo. But....you get the picture. Penn State with the points all day everyday and you're on crack if you think otherwise.

Boise State @ #17 Oregon (-10.5): Part of the reason why the spread is low is because Oregon is down to their 3rd string QBs and that Boise State has been impressive on the defensive side of the ball, allowing a combined 14 points in their two victories. Autzen Stadium provides quite the challenges for opponents and you know BCS-Buster Boise is up to the challenge. Again, I'm not sure who to go for here but take Oregon with the points due to a 17 point victory.

#18 Wake Forest @ #24 Florida State (-4): A historically lopsided series in favor of FSU up until very recently, once again I feel like Wake is being slept on. Wake has won the last two meetings, including the 30-0 shocker in Tallahassee in 2006 which rocketed WF to an ACC title that year. Florida State is much improved yes, and has confidence after annihalating title contenders Chattanooga and Coastal Carolina...as any team should. But Wake is gritty, intelligent on offense with Brian Skinner at QB and doesn't get smacked around too often especially as of late. If Florida State wins, it'll be by a FG. Take Wake with the points here.

Sam Houston State @ #19 Kansas

#20 Utah (-7.5) @ Air Force: This will be Utah's toughest game before the end of the season when they play BYU. Air Force can and will run all day, everyday. The road team has won the past 2 in this series (AFA by 8 last year, Utah by 3 in 2006). Air Force has lost however the last 8 times facing a ranked opponent. Utah wins. Air Force covers because of that .5.

#21 West Virginia (-2.5) @ Colorado: WVU is 10-8 all time against the Big 12 (though they smacked Oklahoma the last game). West Virginia is adjusting to a new offense and it'll be interesting after the bye week to see how they come out after East Carolina dispatched them with surprising ease. Colorado meanwhile came out flat against Eastern Washington after ambushing Colorado State. Colorado has a tough run defense. But they haven't encountered the speed of West Virginia. WVU averts the upset and covers.

#22 Illinois- idle
South Carolina State @ #23 Clemson

#25 Fresno State (-7) @ Toledo: Another long road trip from the "anywhere at anytime" boys from Fresno. Toledo hasn't been the most awe-inspiring team...but they've been able to beat ranked opponents in their house (3-0) and they have compiled a 35-6 home record since 2001. In their only meeting in Fresno, FSU demolished Toledo 44-14. Fresno is looking to justify their ranking yes, and the one thing that does help Fresno is that even though they're traveling far, the start time is 8:15pm eastern. Take Toledo however with the points.

And so on.

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