Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Top 25 Games Bettors Guide (College).

Respect the Gambling Gods but here's my take as to what will go down.

#1 USC- idle
#2 Oklahoma- idle

#3 Georgia (-7) @ Arizona State: You figure the line is this low because Georgia has to travel out west for the first time in decades; and not to mention ASU still has an explosive offense. Don't be fooled however by Georgia's mere 7 point victory over South Carolina last week- that series always has had low margins of victories. Not to mention ASU's recent track record vs. ranked teams suck. Oh, and they lost to UNLV last week at home looking forward to this game. Take UGA with the points as they should win 34-17.

#4 Florida (-7.5) @ Tennessee: The Gators 26-3 victory over the U was misleading, as they barely covered the spread bc of a late FG...not to mention only being up 9-3 heading into the 4th. Meanwhile, Tennessee covered their 30.5 spread by destroying UAB 35-3 after a slow start. The last two meetings in Knoxville have been decided by a combined 3 points (Tenn 30-28 in 04; Fla 21-20 in 06) and Tennessee will be looking for revenge after getting annihalated 59-20 last year. Take Tennessee with the points as I expect a 28-24 Gators victory.

Buffalo @ #5 Missouri (-34.5): Umm. In 3 games this year, Mizzou's first team offense has been forced to punt 4 times. All against Illinois. That's all you need to know. Take Mizzou and the points. Please. 63-21 is my prediction. Moving on...

#6 LSU (-2.5) @ #10 Auburn: This will be a knockout, dragout fight I'll tell you that much. I'm surprised that LSU's favored here- given the home team has won straight up since 2000. This is likely because of seeing Auburn's inept offense be held to 3 points last week @ Mississippi State. No team has won by more than 6 in four years (Auburn at home by 1 and 4; LSU by 3 and 6). LSU hasn't faced a defense like Auburn yet. Take Auburn straight up if you can.

Rice @ #7 Texas (-30): Although Rice has improved, Texas has manhandled their non-conference foes from Texas in recent history, especially Rice. Since 2004, they've only failed to cover the current spread once (35-13 in 2004) scoring 50+ points in each of those contests (51-10 in '05; 52-7 in '06; 58-14 in '07). Expect the same here. Take Texas with the points.

#8 Wisconsin- idle

#9 Alabama (-9.5) @ Arkansas: Expectations at Alabama are at a fever pitch right now looking impressive on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, many pundits believe Arkansas is the worst 2-0 team in the nation, needing to mount comebacks over powerhouses Western Illinois and Louisiana-Monroe. The spread is this low because most of these games have been tight and historically 'Bama has struggled with the Razorbacks. They haven't defeated them in Arkansas since 2002 and the last couple of games have gone down to the wire. Tough one, take Arkansas with the points.

Massachusetts @ #11 Texas Tech

#12 South Florida (-29) @ Florida International: Appears like a total mismatch on paper...but anytime you have two upstart programs getting ready to tango, you never know what can happen. The only time they met, FIU believe it or not staked to a 20-7 lead before USF came from behind to win 21-20. USF went on to go 9-4 that year while FIU was winless...the talent has gotten better at USF since then obviously while FIU seems to be stuck on stupid. However, with FIU christening a new stadium...I can't see FIU getting embarrassed. Take FIU with the points.

Troy @ #13 Ohio State (-21): I know what you're thinking. Troy= spread offense team. Ohio State= can't stop the spread. Survey says= trouble. And the thing is...I agree with you. Troy is a damn good football team. USC just shredded OSU's vaunted defense to the tune of 35 points and although Troy isn't nearly as talented as USC...they can and will cause fits. The main question is how OSU's psychie is after taking yet another trip to the woodshed. Ohio State wins...but take Troy with the points as OSU will have a tough time putting them away.

Wyoming @ #14 BYU (-28.5): The stats add up in this one. BYU's coming off a 59-0 whitewash of UCLA. Wyoming barely held off FCS' North Dakota State 16-13. Last year BYU defeated Wyoming 35-10 on the road. Wyoming hasn't defeated BYU in Provo since 1987 and 7 of 8 overall. Last game @ BYU in 2006: 55-7 Cougars. We get it. BYU with the points all the way.

#15 East Carolina (-7.5) @ North Carolina State: Last week I wondered aloud why the hell ECU was only favored by 13 against Tulane and it made sense why. Let-down game within their conference. I ask this question again against another inferior team; arguably one of the worst in the ACC. It's because historically especially against the ACC, they've been shaky. People jumped all over this team after their wins vs. VA Tech and West Virginia...but I'm still not sold on them yet. This game gives them the perfect opportunity to do so and NC State is terrible. ECU with the points (barely) in a 10 point victory.

Temple @ #16 Penn State (-28.5): Temple hasn't even scored on the Nittany Lions in 2 years. Never beaten them, never even really came close. Yes they're a much better team than the one that was the Big East Punching Bag. They could even be 3-0 if it wasn't for an OT loss to UConn and a Hail Mary to Buffalo. But....you get the picture. Penn State with the points all day everyday and you're on crack if you think otherwise.

Boise State @ #17 Oregon (-10.5): Part of the reason why the spread is low is because Oregon is down to their 3rd string QBs and that Boise State has been impressive on the defensive side of the ball, allowing a combined 14 points in their two victories. Autzen Stadium provides quite the challenges for opponents and you know BCS-Buster Boise is up to the challenge. Again, I'm not sure who to go for here but take Oregon with the points due to a 17 point victory.

#18 Wake Forest @ #24 Florida State (-4): A historically lopsided series in favor of FSU up until very recently, once again I feel like Wake is being slept on. Wake has won the last two meetings, including the 30-0 shocker in Tallahassee in 2006 which rocketed WF to an ACC title that year. Florida State is much improved yes, and has confidence after annihalating title contenders Chattanooga and Coastal Carolina...as any team should. But Wake is gritty, intelligent on offense with Brian Skinner at QB and doesn't get smacked around too often especially as of late. If Florida State wins, it'll be by a FG. Take Wake with the points here.

Sam Houston State @ #19 Kansas

#20 Utah (-7.5) @ Air Force: This will be Utah's toughest game before the end of the season when they play BYU. Air Force can and will run all day, everyday. The road team has won the past 2 in this series (AFA by 8 last year, Utah by 3 in 2006). Air Force has lost however the last 8 times facing a ranked opponent. Utah wins. Air Force covers because of that .5.

#21 West Virginia (-2.5) @ Colorado: WVU is 10-8 all time against the Big 12 (though they smacked Oklahoma the last game). West Virginia is adjusting to a new offense and it'll be interesting after the bye week to see how they come out after East Carolina dispatched them with surprising ease. Colorado meanwhile came out flat against Eastern Washington after ambushing Colorado State. Colorado has a tough run defense. But they haven't encountered the speed of West Virginia. WVU averts the upset and covers.

#22 Illinois- idle
South Carolina State @ #23 Clemson

#25 Fresno State (-7) @ Toledo: Another long road trip from the "anywhere at anytime" boys from Fresno. Toledo hasn't been the most awe-inspiring team...but they've been able to beat ranked opponents in their house (3-0) and they have compiled a 35-6 home record since 2001. In their only meeting in Fresno, FSU demolished Toledo 44-14. Fresno is looking to justify their ranking yes, and the one thing that does help Fresno is that even though they're traveling far, the start time is 8:15pm eastern. Take Toledo however with the points.

And so on.

Sunday, September 14, 2008

Car Wreck.

Ever since I got my license when I was 17, I've for the most part been a meticulous driver. Aside from 3 speeding tickets I've gotten, running a stop sign and a couple of minor accidents everything for the most part's been aight. When I drive fast it's not like I'm bobbing and weaving through traffic, I go with the flow of traffic and all that shit. I've driven in different states with different rules, driven with countless people droppin them back off home or goin places. Driving can be a lot of fun.

But just like everything in life, you can't take it for granted because in a flash shit can change.

It was just another typical Friday, business as usual working at Crapple. Apparently it had been raining all day albeit lightly and it was still raining when I got off my shift. A normal drive home, boom no problem I figure I'm gonna relax for a little, feed myself and then get ready to hit uptown with Jawann and his people.

"You have to drop off Chine." My dad goes. I'm a little frustrated by this seeing how not only is it still raining, but I just got home and wanted to get settled...but I figure it's whatever. I grab a sandwich and then get right back on the road. Traffic is moving alright the whole way to Brooklyn and I'm just relaxed, looking forward to what I figure will be a good night. I'm running a little late but I'm not terribly concerned, especially knowing my boy is running late himself. Traffic on the way back is slower. Typical, whatever. I hop on the LIE then the Grand Central going east and then when I get closer to exit 13 I would have to choose my destiny: Keep going on the Grand Central and take it to the Cross Island (traffic's moving quicker) or take the Van Wyck to the Belt Parkway (not as quick but a shorter route)? I choose the former...

I'm looking like a genius cruising on the highway and I switch onto the Cross Island. No real problems still...traffic isn't moving as quickly as I would hope but I'm still making due time. I'm almost home now and as I approach the Belmont Racetrack exit I'm still in the middle lane. I then decide to make another fateful decision and go onto my right lane because a good gap has formed...

Passing the Linden Blvd exit I am two exits away from home and I'm just thankful that I can finally go home and relax. But wait a minute- someone's coming onto the highway and the person's going slower than they really should be. I do notice this and I go to apply the brakes, however with the road being wet I don't really have that much traction and now I'm beginning to panic. Other people are successful why am I not...fuck fuck fuck please move please move...I have one last chance to avert disaster...turn the wheel just don't hit him car slow down please....

WHAP!

It happened all in one instant. Five seconds ago I was just fine. Now suddenly I have a million thoughts going into my head. My first concern was FUCK I JUST WRECKED MY CAR AND HIT SOMEONE FROM BEHIND which no matter what is gonna make it appear that I'm at fault. My airbags deploy, the inside of the car begins to fill up with smoke and I'm making sure I have everything. I immediately get out the car and I am just frustrated as to what happened. I slam the top of the car but I have to quickly move away from the smoke. Shaking (more so from the long-term ramifications than the short-term), I am frozen in time for a minute before I make the call to my parents to come to the scene. I can't believe I'm telling them I got into an accident. My head is flooded thinking:
1) FUCK I'M NOT GONNA BE ABLE TO GO OUT NOW
2) HOW THE FUCK AM I GONNA GET TO WORK NOW WITH NO CAR?
3) THIS DUDE IS GONNA TRY TO SUE MY ASS
4) MY PARENTS ARE GONNA HATE ME FOR THIS
5) THIS CAR IS TOTALLY WRECKED AND ITS GONNA COST ALOT TO FIX THIS

I wasn't even concerned with my physical well-being (in which honestly I'm fine, I bruised up my lower chest/upper ribcage but fortunately I have no internal bleeding, X-Rays were negative and it happened in the area where it's mainly cartilege and it avoided my lungs and heart).

Mentally I'm a wreck. I don't want to tell anyone what just happened to get people overly concerned but at the same time I just can't believe that it had to happen to me, so close to my house, and it probably would've all been avoided. My mind's just thinking to itself:
1) What if I stuck with taking the Van Wyck/Belt combo?
2) What if my dad's friend never came?
3) What if I just stayed in the frickin middle lane?
4) What if it didn't rain?
5) What if I had just one more second to avoid it?

I mean, the officer did tell me that I should be thankful that I only sustained a bruise and nothing worse. However, I could've cared less about that and I don't really know why. I couldn't measure the impact of the situation in terms of how "it could have been worse" because it really could have been. I could've broken a bone, had a debilitating injury, lost my life, whatever. The accident could've been a multi-vehicle. I could've slammed into my driver's side (the main impact occured on the passengers' side). I could've had a passenger with me. But none of that crossed into my mind. I was upset and shaken, pacing back and forth, just in disbelief and anger in myself as to what could have been.

I went home, called Ashley (my best girl friend/the one I always consider my "girlfriend-in-waiting" hah) and told her what happened. I love her, I really do it just sucks that she's so far away from me and in Illinois while I'm here in NYC. I just wanted to sleep, curl up into a ball. I didn't cry, I don't do those but yes I was really upset. I woke up the next morning, physically fine but psychologically in no mood to head into work, so I called out. Then...

"You have to drop off your sister to piano. Be careful please."

You have got to be kidding me. With another car this time but I just got into an accident 12 hours ago and I haven't fully shaken off the trauma and now this? Fuck man. I literally didn't go faster than 60 on the highway the entire time and I stayed in the middle lane (I am scared of the right lane now). The rest of the day was just thinkin about those what ifs...before I finally was able to go out and forget about all of this. However, my frustration about the situation led to me probably drinking more than I should have Saturday night...falling asleep briefly on the 416 Huntington train but check this out:

I WAKE UP RIGHT AFTER THE DOORS CLOSE FOR JAMAICA AND I HAVE TO TAKE IT TO FUCKIN NEW HYDE PARK!

Now I'm panicking, and just uber-pissed because now I have to take a cab back home. I walk to the dispatcher and I just say I need a fuckin cab. I don't give a fuck how much it costs just take me to one. Keep in mind- I have work with adidas at 7am and now it's approaching 5am. I was also supposed to get my ribs checked out (hence the prognosis that I now know of). The cab comes and he tells me it'll cost $30 and I absolutely go berserk (self-anger). It scares the driver and he literally jumps out and says he's not gonna drop me off. After pleading with him and telling him I'm sorry, he goes ahead and drops me off. I'm furious with myself however in that one mistake cost me $30 that I could have easily saved had I simply woken up 5 min earlier or not fell asleep at all. By the way, I didn't even make it to adidas because I was at the hospital til around 830-9am (I got there around 630-7).

And just for icing on the cake to recap my week:
1) Mets & Jets both lose today, and the Phillies sweep their doubleheader.
2) Last night I went to a party and although I am in good terms with her; just seeing one of my ex'es and her new boyfriend even though it didn't bother me, kinda weirded me out especially knowing I had asked her out exactly 2 years to the day.
3) My most recent ex is basically engaged. Good for her and her new boyfriend but the whole situation (from time to time) still bothers the daylights out of me.

And so on.